吴小平：特斯拉腰斩背后的投资哲学 Wu Xiaoping: The investment philosophy behind Tesla's cut

2025年3月11日，破竹第62场直播以“特斯拉腰斩背后的投资哲学”为主题，深入剖析了全球科技巨头股价剧烈波动背后的逻辑，并结合中美科技博弈的宏观背景，对中国资本市场未来十个月的发展趋势进行了展望。 On March 11, 2025, the 62nd live broadcast of Broken Bamboo, with the theme of “The investment philosophy behind Tesla's cut”, an in-depth analysis of the logic behind the sharp fluctuations in the stock prices of global technology giants, and combined with the macro background of the Sino-US technology game, the development trend of China's capital market in the next ten months is looked forward to.

本文基于直播内容，围绕“特斯拉与英伟达的估值风险”、“国产算力产业链的崛起”、“软件行业的重估潜力”以及“科技投资的结构性机会”四大主题展开论述。 Based on the live broadcast content, this article discusses four themes: “The valuation risks of Tesla and Nvidia”, “The rise of the domestic computing power industry chain”, “The revaluation Potential of the Software Industry”, and “Structural opportunities for technology investment”.

通过对关键信息的深度挖掘，结合案例与数据分析，本文旨在揭示动荡市场中的投资哲学，为投资者提供清晰的决策指引。 Through in-depth mining of key information, combined with case studies and data analysis, this article aims to reveal the investment philosophy in turbulent markets and provide investors with clear decision-making guidelines.

一、特斯拉与英伟达的估值风险：从繁荣到回调的启示

1. Valuation Risks of Tesla and Nvidia: From Prosperity to Pullback

直播开篇即点明美国科技股的剧烈波动：2025年初至今，纳斯达克指数下跌14%，科技股市值蒸发8万亿美元，其中特斯拉和英伟达成为焦点。 At the beginning of the live broadcast, the sharp fluctuations in U.S. technology stocks were pointed out: since the beginning of 2025, the Nasdaq Index has fallen by 14%, and the value of the technology stock market has evaporated by 8 trillion U.S. dollars, of which Tesla and Nvidia have become the focus.

特斯拉股价从500美元跌至250美元，腰斩背后不仅是市场情绪的转变，更反映了其商业模式与外部环境的双重挑战。英伟达则从150美元跌至不足110美元，凸显单一收入来源的高风险性。这些案例为投资者提供了深刻的教训：高估值的光环下，风险往往悄然积聚。 Tesla's share price fell from美元500 to美元250. Behind the cut is not only a change in market sentiment, but also reflects the dual challenges of its business model and the external environment. Nvidia fell from美元150 to less than1110, highlighting the high risk of a single source of income. These cases provide investors with a profound lesson: in the aura of high valuation, risks often accumulate quietly.

特斯拉的“政治代价”

Tesla's "Political Price”

特斯拉的下跌与其CEO埃隆·马斯克的政治介入密切相关。 Tesla's decline is closely related to the political involvement of its CEO Elon Musk.

2024年，马斯克公开支持德国极右翼政党，并呼吁北约增资，激怒法国、德国等传统左翼主导的国家。这些国家通过抵制特斯拉汽车表达不满，例如德国特斯拉门店遭遇抗议，销量同比下降15%。在美国，民主党支持者也减少购买特斯拉车辆，2025年2月美国市场份额从12%降至10%。政治风险叠加关税壁垒（美国对华关税升至20%），削弱了特斯拉的全球竞争力，导致市场对其长期增长预期的信心动摇。 In 2024, Musk publicly supported the German far-right political parties and called on NATO to increase its capital, angering France, Germany and other countries dominated by the traditional left. These countries have expressed dissatisfaction by boycotting Tesla Motors. For example, Tesla stores in Germany suffered protests, and sales fell by 15% year-on-year. In the United States, Democratic Party supporters have also reduced their purchases of Tesla vehicles, and the U.S. market share fell from 12% to 10% in February 2025. The combination of political risks and tariff barriers (the US tariff on China has risen to 20%) has weakened Tesla's global competitiveness and caused the market's confidence in its long-term growth expectations to falter.

英伟达的“集中风险”

Nvidia's "Concentration Risk”

英伟达的下跌则源于收入结构的脆弱性。其2024财年80%的收入依赖GPU销售，且高度集中于少数大客户（如微软、亚马逊）。 Nvidia's decline stems from the fragility of its revenue structure. 80% of its revenue in fiscal year 2024 depends on GPU sales, and it is highly concentrated in a few major customers (such as Microsoft and Amazon).

当杭州DeepSeek等中国AI企业推出替代方案，美国对华芯片出口限制进一步收紧（H100已禁售，H20可能断供），英伟达失去中国市场这一重要增长点。2024年中国占英伟达全球收入的20%，禁售直接导致订单流失。加之全球AI算力需求增速放缓（从2023年的50%降至2025年的30%），英伟达的高估值（PE超50倍）难以为继，回调成为必然。 When Chinese AI companies such as Hangzhou DeepSeek launched alternatives, and U.S. chip export restrictions to China were further tightened (H100 has been banned, H20 may be cut off), Nvidia lost this important growth point in the Chinese market. In 2024, China will account for 20% of Nvidia's global revenue, and the ban on sales will directly lead to the loss of orders. Coupled with the slowdown in the growth rate of global demand for AI computing power (from 50% in 2023 to 30% in 2025), Nvidia's high valuation (PE over 50 times) is unsustainable, and a pullback is inevitable.

投资启示

Investment inspiration

特斯拉与英伟达的遭遇揭示了科技股投资的核心风险：外部环境的不确定性与企业自身脆弱性的叠加。 The encounter between Tesla and Nvidia reveals the core risk of technology stock investment: the superposition of the uncertainty of the external environment and the company's own vulnerability.

投资者应警惕单一依赖型商业模式和高估值的潜在陷阱，尤其在全球供应链重构与地缘政治博弈加剧的背景下。这一教训对中国资本市场同样适用：追逐热点需谨慎，估值与基本面的匹配才是长期制胜的关键。 Investors should be wary of the potential pitfalls of single-dependent business models and high valuations, especially in the context of the restructuring of global supply chains and the intensification of geopolitical games. This lesson also applies to China's capital market: you need to be cautious in chasing hot spots, and matching valuations with fundamentals is the key to long-term success.

二、国产算力产业链的崛起：被迫与必然的交汇

2. The rise of the domestic computing power industry chain: the Forced and inevitable intersection

美国对华芯片出口限制（H20可能禁售）将倒逼中国算力产业链加速崛起。这一趋势不仅是外部压力的结果，更是国内科技自立需求的必然产物。 U.S. chip export restrictions to China (H20 may ban sales) will force China's computing power industry chain to accelerate its rise. This trend is not only the result of external pressure, but also an inevitable product of domestic demand for scientific and technological self-reliance.

华为、海光、寒武纪等企业正迎来历史性机遇。 Companies such as Huawei, Haiguang, and Cambrian are ushering in historical opportunities.

政策与市场的双重驱动

The dual drive of policy and market

美国芯片禁售政策为中国算力产业打开窗口。2024年，中国进口芯片总额达3000亿美元，其中高端GPU依赖英伟达等外企。 The U.S. chip ban policy has opened a window for China's computing power industry. In 2024, China's total imports of chips will reach US3300 billion, of which high-end GPUs will rely on foreign companies such as Nvidia.

如今，H100禁售已成事实，H20若断供，中国智算中心建设将全面转向国产替代。华为910C芯片计划2025年量产，单价20万元，若年产100万颗，直接产值2000亿元，带动产业链上下游（如电路板、数据中心）产值或超1万亿元。政策层面，国家集成电路产业基金三期（3000亿元）已启动，北方华创等设备商获重点支持，加速国产化进程。 Nowadays, the ban on the sale of H100 has become a fact. If the supply of H20 is cut off, the construction of China's intelligent computing center will fully shift to domestic substitution. Huawei's 910C chip plans to be mass-produced in 2025 with a unit price of 200,000 yuan. If the annual output is 1 million, the direct output value will be 200 billion yuan, driving the output value of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain (such as circuit boards and data centers) may exceed 1 trillion yuan. At the policy level, the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund (300 billion yuan) has been launched, and equipment manufacturers such as NAURA Huachuang have received key support to accelerate the localization process.

企业层面的突破

Breakthroughs at the corporate level

华为、海光等企业的技术积累为算力崛起奠定基础。以海光为例，其2024年年报显示，DPU和AI加速芯片收入同比增长50%，受益于国产服务器需求激增。寒武纪虽在消费级市场表现平平，但在边缘计算领域占据一席之地。 The technology accumulation of Huawei, Haiguang and other companies has laid the foundation for the rise of computing power. Taking Haiguang as an example, its 2024 annual report shows that DPU and AI acceleration chip revenue increased by 50% year-on-year, benefiting from the surge in demand for domestic servers. Although Cambrian has performed mediocre in the consumer market, it occupies a place in the field of edge computing.

未上市的木兮科技，其CGPU已在上海备案上市辅导，显示算力赛道的竞争日益白热化。这些企业的崛起不仅是技术突破，更是市场需求的直接回应——阿里、腾讯等巨头别无选择，只能加大国产芯片采购。 The unlisted Muxi Technology, whose CGPU has been filed for listing in Shanghai, shows that the competition in the computing power market is getting hotter and hotter. The rise of these companies is not only a technological breakthrough, but also a direct response to market demand-giants such as Ali and Tencent have no choice but to increase domestic chip purchases.

投资机会与风险

Investment opportunities and risks

国产算力产业链的高确定性增长是2025年的核心主题。 The high-certainty growth of the domestic computing power industry chain is the core theme of 2025.

然而，投资者需关注两点风险：一是技术瓶颈，国产芯片与英伟达仍有差距（如算力密度仅达H100的70%）；二是估值过热，海光PE已超40倍，短期回调压力不容忽视。 However, investors need to pay attention to two risks: one is the technological bottleneck, and there is still a gap between domestic chips and Nvidia (for example, the computing power density is only 70% of H100); the second is that the valuation is overheated, Haiguang PE has exceeded 40 times, and the short-term pullback pressure cannot be ignored.

尽管如此，长期视角下，这一赛道的战略价值无可替代，投资者可聚焦产业链中游（如PCB板卡）与下游（如数据中心建设），避开上游过度拥挤的炒作。 Nevertheless, from a long-term perspective, the strategic value of this track is irreplaceable. Investors can focus on the upstream (such as PCB boards) and downstream (such as data center construction) of the industrial chain to avoid the hype of overcrowding upstream.

三、软件行业的重估潜力：AI时代的承接者

3. The re-evaluation potential of the software industry: the undertaker in the AI era

软件行业将成为AI技术从上游（大模型）到下游（应用场景）的关键承接点，其价值亟待重估。这一观点基于智能体（如Monica）的兴起及其对算力与应用的双重需求。 The software industry will become the key undertaking point for AI technology from upstream (large model) to downstream (application scenario), and its value needs to be re-evaluated urgently. This view is based on the rise of agents (such as Monica) and their dual needs for computing power and application.

智能体驱动的软件需求

Agent-driven software requirements

以华中科技大学孵化的Monica为例，这一智能体通过感知环境、推理决策，已在教育、医疗等领域展现潜力。直播预测，类似Manual的智能体将催生对工具软件的爆炸式需求。 Taking Monica incubated by Huazhong University of Science and Technology as an example, this agent has shown its potential in education, medical care and other fields through perception of the environment, reasoning and decision-making. Live broadcast predicts that Manual-like agents will generate an explosive demand for tool software.

2024年，中国软件行业收入约1.2万亿元，同比增长10%，但估值（平均PE 20倍）远低于科技板块整体（35倍）。智能体的普及将推动软件从传统互联网配套转向AI生态核心。 In 2024, the revenue of China's software industry will be about 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year, but the valuation (average PE 20 times) is much lower than that of the technology sector as a whole (35 times). The popularization of agents will promote the software to shift from traditional Internet support to the core of AI ecology.

例如，数据可视化、自动化流程等工具软件需求激增，2025年市场规模或突破1.5万亿元。 For example, the demand for software for tools such as data visualization and automated processes has surged, and the market size may exceed 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025.

重估的逻辑

Logic of revaluation

过去，软件行业因缺乏硬件那样的“硬核”属性而被低估。然而，AI时代下，软件成为算力与应用的“骨架”。 In the past, the software industry was underestimated because it lacked the “hard-core” attributes of hardware. However, in the era of AI, software has become the “skeleton” of computing power and application.

若无软件支持，华为910C的算力无法转化为生产力，智能体的推理也无法落地。以用友网络为例，其2024年AI驱动的ERP产品收入增长30%，显示软件企业的转型潜力。相比之下，海外软件巨头（如Salesforce）PE普遍超40倍，中国软件企业的低估值蕴含巨大上升空间。 Without software support, the computing power of Huawei 910C cannot be converted into productivity, and the reasoning of the agent cannot be implemented. Taking UF as an example, its AI-driven ERP product revenue increased by 30% in 2024, showing the transformation potential of software companies. In contrast, the PE of overseas software giants (such as Salesforce) generally exceeds 40 times, and the undervaluation of Chinese software companies contains huge room for improvement.

投资策略

Investment strategy

软件行业的重估机会在于其低关注度与高成长性。投资者可关注估值合理（PE 15-25倍）、具备AI转型能力的企业，如用友、金蝶等。同时，需警惕市场情绪波动，若科技热潮降温，资金或从上游溢出至软件板块，带来短期交易性机会。 The opportunity for revaluation in the software industry lies in its low attention and high growth. Investors can pay attention to companies with reasonable valuations (PE 15-25 times) and AI transformation capabilities, such as UF, Kingdee, etc. At the same time, we need to be wary of fluctuations in market sentiment. If the technology boom cools down, funds may overflow from upstream to the software sector, bringing short-term trading opportunities.

四、科技投资的结构性机会：动荡中的取舍之道

4. Structural Opportunities for Science and technology investment: Trade-offs in turmoil

2025年中国资本市场将呈现“科技独热，其他皆冷”的格局。上证指数年初至今几乎零增长，深圳成指仅涨4%，而科技板块涨幅超14%，凸显结构性分化。投资者需在动荡中寻找高确定性机会。 In 2025, China's capital market will show a pattern of “technology is hot alone, and everything else is cold”. The Shanghai Composite Index has had almost zero growth year-to-date, the Shenzhen Composite Index has only risen by 4%, while the technology sector has risen by more than 14%, highlighting the structural differentiation. Investors need to look for high-certainty opportunities in turbulence.

人形机器人的长期潜力

The long-term potential of humanoid robots

人形机器人被视为“科技皇冠上的宝石”。 Humanoid robots are regarded as the “jewel in the crown of science and technology.”

三花智控、拓普集团等企业，因特斯拉Optimus量产预期，已成为市场热点。然而，特斯拉在华销量下降对其供应商影响有限，中国本土需求（如工业自动化）更具支撑力。以拓普为例，其2024年人形机器人零部件收入占比升至15%，同比增长80%。 若中国实现量产（如小米、华为入局），相关企业市值有望从数百亿跃升至数千亿。 Companies such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Tuopu Group have become a hot spot in the market due to the expectation of mass production of Tesla Optimus. However, Tesla's decline in sales in China has a limited impact on its suppliers, and local demand in China (such as industrial automation) is more supportive. Taking Tuopu as an example, its share of humanoid robot parts revenue will rise to 15% in 2024, an increase of 80% year-on-year. If China achieves mass production (such as Xiaomi and Huawei entering the bureau), the market value of related companies is expected to jump from tens of billions to hundreds of billions.

证券行业的短期窗口

Short-term window for the securities industry

证券公司因低基数效应，2025年前三季度业绩预计高增。2024年9-12月市场活跃奠定基础，今年交易量虽不及去年末，但仍高于上半年均值。中信证券2024年净利润同比增长20%，2025年一季度或延续趋势。然而，四季度可能因基数效应转负，投资者需把握节奏。 Due to the low base effect of securities companies, their performance in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase. The market activity from September to December 2024 will lay the foundation. Although the trading volume this year is not as high as at the end of last year, it is still higher than the average for the first half of the year. Citic Securities' net profit increased by 20% year-on-year in 2024, and the trend may continue in the first quarter of 2025. However, the fourth quarter may turn negative due to the base effect, and investors need to grasp the rhythm.

债券基金的配置价值

Allocation value of bond funds

十年国债收益率升至1.8%，短期刺激政策导致价格下跌，但长期趋势仍向下。若持有超一年，利率下行（预计至1.5%）将推升债券基金收益。2024年，债券基金平均收益率4%，适合稳健投资者对抗市场波动。 The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose to 1.8%. Short-term stimulus policies caused prices to fall, but the long-term trend remained downward. If you hold it for more than one year, a decline in interest rates (expected to 1.5%) will push up bond fund returns. In 2024, bond funds will have an average yield of 4%, which is suitable for stable investors to combat market fluctuations.

投资哲学的取舍

Trade-off of investment philosophy

科技热潮下，投资者需明确取舍：上游（如芯片）虽贵但确定性高，中下游（如软件、机器人零部件）性价比更优。脱离科技圈效率低下，其他行业（如金融、医药）短期难获资金青睐。 Under the technology boom, investors need to make clear the trade-off: although the upstream (such as chips) are expensive, the certainty is high, and the middle and downstream (such as software and robot parts) are more cost-effective. It is inefficient to leave the technology circle, and it is difficult for other industries (such as finance and medicine) to obtain capital in the short term.

借鉴特斯拉教训，分散风险、关注基本面是关键。 Drawing on the lessons of Tesla, it is the key to spread risks and pay attention to fundamentals.

五、从腰斩中洞见新生

5. Insight into the new life from the waist cut

特斯拉与英伟达的腰斩，既是全球科技股泡沫破裂的缩影，也为中国资本市场提供了镜鉴。2025年，在中美博弈与政策接力的双重驱动下，国产算力与软件行业将迎来爆发，而人形机器人等结构性机会则孕育长期潜力。 The cuts of Tesla and Nvidia are not only a microcosm of the bursting of the global technology stock bubble, but also provide a mirror for China's capital market. In 2025, driven by the dual game and policy relay between China and the United States, the domestic computing power and software industries will usher in an explosion, while structural opportunities such as humanoid robots will nurture long-term potential.

关于投资，核心哲学仍然是：在动荡中保持理性，抓住确定性趋势。 Regarding investment, the core philosophy is still: be rational in turmoil and seize the trend of certainty.

正如历史所示，2018年贸易战后科技股虽短暂低迷，但2019年反弹超50%。2025年，投资者若能洞悉政策节奏与产业脉动，必将在新生中觅得胜机。 As history shows, although technology stocks suffered a brief downturn after the 2018 trade war, they rebounded by more than 50% in 2019. In 2025, if investors can gain insight into the rhythm of policy and the pulse of the industry, they will definitely find a winning opportunity in the new life.