美股暴跌会连累其他资产吗？

Will the plunge in US stocks affect other assets? 2025年3月13日，全球金融市场因美股的持续下跌而备受关注。 美股三大指数近期表现疲软，科技股领跌，蒸发数万亿美元市值。 On March 13, 2025, the global financial markets attracted much attention due to the continued decline in US stocks. The three major U.S. stock indexes have recently performed weakly, and technology stocks have led the decline, evaporating trillions of dollars in market capitalization.

这一现象不仅引发了投资者对美国经济前景的担忧，也促使人们思考其对全球其他资产的潜在影响。 本文将围绕“美股暴跌会连累其他资产吗”这一核心问题，深入探讨美股下跌的原因、对黄金的避险作用影响、对A股的传导效应，以及A股后续能否走出独立行情的可能性。 This phenomenon has not only raised investors' concerns about the US economic outlook, but also prompted people to think about its potential impact on other assets around the world. This article will focus on the core issue of “Will the collapse of US stocks affect other assets?”, and explore in depth the reasons for the decline of US stocks, the impact of the safe-haven effect on gold, the conduction effect on A-shares, and the possibility of whether A-shares can get out of the independent market in the future.

通过对关键信息的分析，结合历史案例和数据，旨在为读者提供一个逻辑清晰、内容丰富的视角。 Through the analysis of key information, combined with historical cases and data, it aims to provide readers with a logical, clear and informative perspective.

本文主要内容参考了破竹2025年3月12日的直播，感兴趣的朋欢迎查看直播原视频，收获会更大。 直播回看地址：https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67ce79eee4b0694ca075e55f/4 The main content of this article refers to the live broadcast of Broken Bamboo on March 12, 2025. If you are interested, you are welcome to check out the original video of the live broadcast. The harvest will be even greater. Live broadcast look back address:https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67ce79eee4b0694ca075e55f/4

一、美股暴跌的原因

The reasons for the plunge in US stocks 美股的此次下跌并非单一因素作用的结果，而是多重压力叠加的产物。 The decline in US stocks is not the result of a single factor, but the product of multiple pressures superimposed.

首先，特朗普新政被认为是主要驱动因素。自特朗普上台以来，其推出的关税政策和对内经济改革引发了市场的不确定性。特朗普的关税政策导致全球多个国家采取强硬态度，贸易博弈升级，投资者担忧这将对美国的外贸和经济增长构成威胁。例如，2024年美国对主要贸易伙伴加征关税后，出口数据显著下滑，根据美国商务部统计，2024年第四季度出口额同比下降约8%，加剧了市场对经济衰退的预期。 First, the Trump New Deal is considered to be the main driver. Since Trump came to power, his tariff policies and domestic economic reforms have triggered market uncertainty. Trump's tariff policy has led many countries around the world to adopt a tough stance and escalate the trade game. Investors are worried that this will pose a threat to U.S. foreign trade and economic growth. For example, after the United States imposed tariffs on major trading partners in 2024, export data fell significantly. According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, exports in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell by about 8% year-on-year, exacerbating market expectations of a recession.

其次，国内经济数据的不佳表现进一步放大了恐慌情绪。美国非农就业数据不及预期，失业率上升至4.5%以上，显示出劳动力市场的疲软。此外，大型科技企业裁员潮的持续发酵，如特斯拉和亚马逊2024年底宣布的大规模裁员计划，使投资者对企业盈利能力和经济韧性产生怀疑。根据标普500成分股的财报数据，2024年第四季度企业利润同比增长率降至仅2.3%，远低于前一年的7.8%，高估值难以支撑，市场信心随之动摇。 Secondly, the poor performance of domestic economic data has further amplified the panic. U.S. non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to more than 4.5%, indicating the weakness of the labor market. In addition, the continued fermentation of the wave of layoffs by large technology companies, such as the large-scale layoffs announced by Tesla and Amazon at the end of 2024, has raised investors' doubts about corporate profitability and economic resilience. According to the earnings data of the S&P 500 constituent stocks, the year-on-year growth rate of corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell to only 2.3%, much lower than the 7.8% of the previous year. The high valuation is difficult to support, and market confidence will be shaken.

最后，货币政策的不确定性也起到推波助澜的作用。美联储在2024年下半年暂停加息并释放降息信号，但通胀压力仍未完全消退，导致市场对货币政策路径的预期分歧加剧。恐慌指数（VIX）近期飙升至30以上，反映出投资者对未来不确定性的高度警惕。综合来看，特朗普新政引发的贸易紧张、经济数据的疲软以及货币政策的不明朗，共同构成了美股暴跌的深层原因。 Finally, the uncertainty of monetary policy has also played a role in fueling it. The Fed suspended interest rate increases in the second half of 2024 and issued a signal to cut interest rates, but inflationary pressures have not completely subsided, leading to increased divergence in market expectations for the path of monetary policy. The panic index (VIX) recently soared above 30, reflecting investors' high vigilance against future uncertainty. Taken together, the trade tensions caused by the Trump new deal, the weakness of economic data, and the uncertainty of monetary policy together constitute the deep reasons for the plunge in US stocks.

二、黄金还能避险吗？ 2. Can gold still avoid risks?

在金融市场动荡时期，黄金通常被视为避险资产的首选。然而，美股下跌是否必然推动黄金价格上涨，需结合具体情境分析。黄金在当前环境下仍具备一定的避险价值，但其表现受到多重因素制约。 In times of turmoil in financial markets, gold is usually regarded as the first choice for safe-haven assets. However, whether the decline in US stocks will inevitably drive the price of gold to rise needs to be analyzed in combination with specific scenarios. Gold still has a certain risk-averse value in the current environment, but its performance is constrained by multiple factors.

一方面，全球地缘政治和经济的不确定性为黄金提供了支撑。特朗普新政引发的贸易战升级，使美元体系的稳定性受到质疑。作为与美元负相关的资产，黄金在这种背景下往往受到青睐。历史数据显示，在2008年金融危机期间，美股标普500指数下跌超50%，而黄金价格同期上涨约25%。 类似地情况出现在，2020年新冠疫情初期，美股暴跌时黄金价格一度突破2000美元/盎司，显示出其避险属性。 On the one hand, global geopolitical and economic uncertainty provides support for gold. The escalation of the trade war triggered by Trump's new deal has called into question the stability of the dollar system. As an asset negatively correlated with the US dollar, gold is often favored in this context. Historical data show that during the 2008 financial crisis, the US stock S&P 500 index fell by more than 50%, while the price of gold rose by about 25% during the same period. A similar situation occurred in the early days of the New Crown epidemic in 2020, when the US stock market plunged, the price of gold once exceeded US22,000/ounce, showing its risk-averse properties.

但要注意的是，当前黄金价格已处于历史高位，2025年初达到约2500美元/盎司，投资者对其进一步上涨的空间产生分歧。 However, it should be noted that the current price of gold is already at an all-time high, reaching about US22,500/ounce in early 2025, and investors are divided on the room for its further rise.

另一方面，黄金的避险功能受到实际利率和美元走势的制约。如果美联储为应对经济衰退而降息，实际利率下降将利好黄金；但若通胀预期回落，美元走强，则可能压制黄金价格。从一两年的中期趋势看，黄金仍具上涨潜力，但短期内可能因市场调整而波动。 On the other hand, the risk-averse function of gold is restricted by the trend of real interest rates and the US dollar. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in response to the recession, a decline in real interest rates will benefit gold; however, if inflation expectations fall and the dollar strengthens, it may suppress gold prices. Judging from the medium-term trend of one or two years, gold still has upward potential, but it may fluctuate due to market adjustments in the short term.

2024年数据显示，美国10年期国债收益率升至4.2%，实际利率维持在1.5%左右，对黄金形成一定压力。因此，在美股下跌的背景下，黄金虽具备避险潜力，但并非绝对安全的避风港，投资者需关注利率和美元的动态。 Data for 2024 show that the US 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to 4.2%, and the actual interest rate has remained at about 1.5%, forming a certain pressure on gold. Therefore, in the context of the decline in US stocks, although gold has the potential to be a safe haven, it is not an absolutely safe haven. Investors need to pay attention to the dynamics of interest rates and the US dollar.

三、美股暴跌会连累A股吗？ 3. Will the plunge in US stocks affect A-shares?

美股作为全球金融市场的风向标，其波动往往通过多重渠道影响其他市场。A股作为中国资本市场的重要组成部分，是否会因美股暴跌而受到连累，需从传导路径和历史经验两方面分析。 As the weather vane of the global financial market, U.S. stocks' fluctuations often affect other markets through multiple channels. As an important part of China's capital market, whether A-shares will be affected by the plunge in US stocks needs to be analyzed from both the transmission path and historical experience.

首先，从传导路径看，美股下跌对A股的直接影响主要体现在资本流动和市场情绪上。美股暴跌可能引发全球风险资产抛售，国际资本从新兴市场撤回美国以规避风险，导致A股资金面承压。例如，2008年全球金融危机时，沪深300指数在美股暴跌的带动下下跌超60%，外资净流出规模达数百亿美元。此外，美股下跌对发达经济体股市的共振效应更为显著，而对中国这样的大型经济体，影响相对有限，但若美股形成趋势性下跌，A股也难以完全独善其身。 First of all, from the perspective of the transmission path, the direct impact of the decline in US stocks on A-shares is mainly reflected in capital flows and market sentiment. The plunge in US stocks may trigger a global sell-off of risky assets, and international capital will withdraw from emerging markets to the United States to avoid risks, resulting in pressure on A-share funds. For example, during the global financial crisis in 2008, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index fell by more than 60% driven by the plunge in US stocks, and the net outflow of foreign capital reached tens of billions of US dollars. In addition, the decline in US stocks has a more significant resonance effect on the stock markets of advanced economies, while the impact on large economies like China is relatively limited. However, if US stocks form a trend decline, it will be difficult for A-shares to completely stand alone.

其次，历史经验表明，美股暴跌初期往往引发A股的非理性跟跌。2015年A股股灾期间，美股标普500指数的短期调整成为导火索之一，叠加国内杠杆清理，沪指单日跌幅一度超过8%。2020年疫情冲击下，美股熔断四次，A股虽未出现同样剧烈的波动，但沪深300指数在当年3月仍下跌约15%。当前美股的下跌被视为正常调整，而非危机级别的非理性下跌，因此对A股的短期冲击有限。2025年3月12日美股大跌后，次日A股反而收红，显示出一定的抗压能力。 Secondly, historical experience shows that the initial plunge in US stocks often triggered irrational follow-up declines in A-shares. During the A-share crash in 2015, the short-term adjustment of the US stock S&P 500 index became one of the triggers. After domestic leverage was cleaned up, the Shanghai Index fell by more than 8% in a single day. Under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, U.S. stocks exploded four times. Although the A-shares did not experience the same violent fluctuations, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index still fell by about 15% in March of that year. The current decline in US stocks is regarded as a normal adjustment, not a crisis-level irrational decline, so the short-term impact on A stocks is limited. After the US stock market fell sharply on March 12, 2025, the A-shares closed in the red the next day, showing a certain ability to resist pressure.

然而，若美股下跌演变为长期趋势，A股可能面临更大的间接压力。特朗普新政可能削弱全球需求，中国出口导向型企业盈利承压，进而影响A股相关板块。2024年中国对美出口占总额的16%，若关税战升级，这一比例可能进一步压缩。因此，美股暴跌对A股的连累效应取决于下跌的幅度和持续性，短期内影响可控，但长期风险不容忽视。 However, if the decline in US stocks turns into a long-term trend, A-shares may face greater indirect pressure. The Trump new deal may weaken global demand and put pressure on the profitability of Chinese export-oriented companies, which in turn will affect the A-share related sectors. In 2024, China's exports to the United States will account for 16% of the total. If the tariff war escalates, this proportion may be further compressed. Therefore, the cumulative effect of the US stock market crash on A-shares depends on the magnitude and sustainability of the decline. The short-term impact is controllable, but the long-term risks cannot be ignored.

四、A股后续能走出独立行情吗？ 4. Can A-shares go out of the independent market in the follow-up?

A股能否在美股暴跌的背景下走出独立行情，是投资者最为关心的问题。从当前市场环境看，A股具备一定的独立性基础，但完全脱离全球市场的影响仍具挑战性。 Whether A-shares can get out of the independent market in the context of the plunge in US stocks is the most concerned issue for investors. Judging from the current market environment, A-shares have a certain foundation of independence, but the impact of complete separation from the global market is still challenging.

首先，政策支持为A股提供了坚实底盘。2024年以来，中国持续推出宽松的货币和财政政策，包括降准降息、地方债置换等措施，旨在稳定经济增长和提振市场信心。 First of all, policy support provides a solid chassis for A-shares. Since 2024, China has continued to introduce loose monetary and fiscal policies, including measures such as interest rate cuts and local debt replacement, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and boosting market confidence.

政策累积效应正在显现，2025年初市场成交量回升至1.5万亿至2万亿水平，显示出资金活跃度提升。此外，特朗普新政的外部压力可能促使中国进一步加大内需刺激力度，为A股注入新的上涨动力。2024年财政赤字率已升至3.5%，预计2025年可能突破4%，政策空间依然充足。 The cumulative effect of the policy is emerging, and the market volume has rebounded to the level of 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion at the beginning of 2025, indicating an increase in capital activity. In addition, the external pressure of Trump's new deal may prompt China to further increase domestic demand stimulus and inject new upward momentum into A-shares. The fiscal deficit rate has risen to 3.5% in 2024, and it is expected that it may exceed 4% in 2025, and there is still plenty of policy room.

其次，外部环境的变化为A股资产重估创造了条件。特朗普新政导致的全球贸易格局重构，使中国资产的相对吸引力上升。国际资本近期流入香港市场，推升港股表现，而A股作为估值洼地也受到关注。截至2025年3月，沪深300指数市盈率约为12倍，远低于标普500的22倍，性价比优势明显。2024年南下资金净流入港股超2000亿元，部分资金也逐步回流A股，支撑了市场韧性。 Secondly, changes in the external environment have created conditions for the revaluation of A-share assets. The restructuring of the global trade pattern caused by the Trump New Deal has increased the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets. The recent inflow of international capital into the Hong Kong market has boosted the performance of Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares have also attracted attention as a valuation depression. As of March 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index is about 12 times, which is much lower than the 22 times of the S&P 500, and the cost-effective advantage is obvious. In 2024, the net inflow of funds from the south into Hong Kong stocks exceeded 200 billion yuan, and some funds gradually returned to A-shares, supporting the resilience of the market.

然而，A股独立行情的持续性仍面临制约。 However, the sustainability of the independent A-share market is still facing constraints.

全球经济一体化下，美股若陷入长期低迷，可能拖累中国出口和企业盈利，削弱A股上涨动能。此外，国内经济本身存在结构性问题，如房地产行业低迷和消费复苏缓慢，2024年社会消费品零售总额增速仅为3.2%，低于预期。这些因素可能限制A股的独立性。，若美股下跌被视为调整而非危机，A股有望保持相对稳定；但若形成趋势性下跌，A股恐难独善其身。 Under the integration of the global economy, if U.S. stocks fall into a long-term downturn, it may drag down China's exports and corporate earnings, weakening the upward momentum of A-shares. In addition, the domestic economy itself has structural problems, such as the downturn in the real estate industry and the slow recovery of consumption. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 is only 3.2%, which is lower than expected. These factors may limit the independence of A shares. , If the decline in US stocks is regarded as an adjustment rather than a crisis, A-shares are expected to remain relatively stable; however, if a trend decline occurs, A-shares may be difficult to stand alone.

综合来看，A股在2025年有望在政策支持和外部机遇下走出阶段性独立行情，但其幅度和持续性需视美股走势和国内经济复苏情况而定。历史数据显示，2018年中美贸易战初期，A股受美股拖累下跌约25%，但随后在政策刺激下反弹超20%，显示出一定的独立修复能力。当前环境下，投资者应关注政策力度和全球风险的演变。 Taken together, A-shares are expected to emerge from a phased independent market in 2025 with policy support and external opportunities, but their magnitude and sustainability depend on the trend of US stocks and the domestic economic recovery. Historical data show that in the early stage of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, A-shares were dragged down by US stocks by about 25%, but then rebounded by more than 20% under policy stimulus, showing a certain independent repair ability. In the current environment, investors should pay attention to the strength of policies and the evolution of global risks.

结语 Conclusion 美股暴跌作为2025年初的重大市场事件，其成因复杂且影响深远。 特朗普新政、经济数据疲软和货币政策不确定性共同推动了此次下跌，而黄金在避险需求和利率压力的双重作用下表现分化。A股虽因美股波动面临短期连累风险，但得益于政策支持和外部机遇，具备走出独立行情的潜力。全球市场的联动性决定了A股难以完全脱离美股影响，投资者需保持警惕，结合底层逻辑和趋势判断做出决策。 As a major market event in early 2025, the US stock market crash has complex causes and far-reaching effects. The Trump New Deal, weak economic data and monetary policy uncertainty jointly contributed to the decline, while gold's performance diverged under the dual effects of risk-averse demand and interest rate pressure. Although A-shares face short-term risks due to fluctuations in US stocks, they have the potential to exit the independent market thanks to policy support and external opportunities. The linkage of the global market determines that it is difficult for A-shares to completely escape the influence of US stocks. Investors need to be vigilant and make decisions based on underlying logic and trend judgment.

“财富与时间是朋友”，在敬畏市场的同时把握机会，方能在动荡中实现稳健收益。 “Wealth and time are friends”. Only by seizing opportunities while respecting the market can we achieve steady returns in turbulent times.

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