三月股市攻势开启了吗？——2025年3月金融市场深度分析

Has the March Stock Market Offensive Begun? —— In - depth Analysis of the Financial Market in March 2025

2025年3月18日，全球金融市场正处于多重因素交织的复杂节点。海外经济波动、国内政策调整以及市场情绪的起伏，共同构成了当前投资环境的基调。 On March 18, 2025, the global financial market was at a complex juncture intertwined with multiple factors. Overseas economic fluctuations, domestic policy adjustments, and the ups and downs of market sentiment together set the tone for the current investment environment.

本文基于“破竹直播2025年第67场”的大纲主题“三月股市攻势开启了吗？”，结合直播内容，围绕海外风暴是否结束、央行政策力度、全球资金回流影响以及三月潜在顺风赛道四个核心议题，深度剖析当前股市的运行逻辑与未来趋势。 Based on the outline theme "Has the March Stock Market Offensive Begun?" of the 67th Pozhu Live Broadcast in 2025 and combined with the live - broadcast content, this article deeply analyzes the current operating logic and future trends of the stock market around four core topics: whether the overseas storm has ended, the strength of the central bank's policies, the impact of global capital repatriation, and the potential favorable tracks in March.

通过数据支撑与案例分析，本文旨在为投资者提供清晰的思路与判断依据。 Through data support and case analysis, this article aims to provide investors with clear ideas and a basis for judgment.

直播回看链接：https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67d3eaabe4b0694c5aa96a21/4 Live - broadcast replay link: https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67d3eaabe4b0694c5aa96a21/4

一、海外风暴是否结束？

I. Has the Overseas Storm Ended?

海外扰动的持续性与影响

Persistence and Impact of Overseas Disturbances

2025年初以来，海外市场的不确定性成为影响全球金融格局的重要变量。美国政策调整，特别是关税政策的加码，对国际贸易和资本市场产生了显著冲击。截至3月18日，美国针对中国的关税在过去两个月中累计上调20%，远超市场预期。这种快速加征不仅增加了出口国的成本压力，也对依赖国际供应链的行业形成直接冲击。 Since the beginning of 2025, the uncertainty in the overseas market has become an important variable affecting the global financial landscape. The adjustment of US policies, especially the intensification of tariff policies, has had a significant impact on international trade and capital markets. As of March 18, the tariffs imposed by the US on China had been increased by a cumulative 20% in the past two months, far exceeding market expectations. This rapid tariff increase not only increases the cost pressure on exporting countries but also directly impacts industries that rely on international supply chains.

例如，中国出口导向型企业可能面临利润压缩，而美国消费者则需承担更高的物价成本。 For example, Chinese export - oriented enterprises may face profit compression, while American consumers have to bear higher commodity prices.

与此同时，美国市场的调整尚未触底。纳斯达克指数自年初以来已回调约15%，科技板块尤为明显，特斯拉股价甚至下跌50%。然而，这种调整幅度在历史语境中尚不足以构成“深度调整”。 Meanwhile, the adjustment of the US market has not yet hit bottom. The Nasdaq index has pulled back by about 15% since the beginning of the year, especially in the technology sector. The stock price of Tesla has even dropped by 50%. However, this adjustment range is not sufficient to constitute a "deep adjustment" in the historical context.

过去几次美股重大回调，如2008年金融危机期间，标普500指数跌幅超过50%；即便2020年疫情初期，跌幅也达到30%以上。当前15%的回调仅为“小幅震荡”，后续风险仍未完全释放。特朗普政府近期表态将在4月2日起对全球实施“对等性关税”，进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。尽管其中可能包含谈判策略的成分，但其对全球贸易和股市的扰动不容忽视。 In previous major pull - backs of the US stock market, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 index dropped by more than 50%. Even in the early stage of the pandemic in 2020, the decline reached more than 30%. The current 15% pull - back is only a "minor shock", and the subsequent risks have not been fully released. The Trump administration recently stated that it will implement "reciprocal tariffs" globally starting from April 2, further increasing market uncertainty. Although it may contain elements of negotiation strategies, its impact on global trade and the stock market cannot be ignored.

欧洲市场的跷跷板效应与避险资产崛起

The Seesaw Effect in the European Market and the Rise of Safe - haven Assets

海外扰动的影响并非单向。美国市场的小幅回调引发了资金的分流，欧洲市场成为短期受益者。过去两年，德国DAX指数持续上涨，显示出“长牛”特征。这种现象与欧洲经济基本面并不完全吻合——宏观数据显示，欧洲仍面临衰退压力，失业率高企，社会问题频发。股市的上涨更多源于资金避险需求，而非经济复苏的实质支撑。类似地，日本市场也因其成熟经济体的稳定性吸引了部分资金流入。 The impact of overseas disturbances is not one - way. The minor pull - back in the US market has led to a diversion of funds, and the European market has become a short - term beneficiary. In the past two years, the German DAX index has continued to rise, showing a "long - bull" feature. This phenomenon does not fully match the European economic fundamentals - macro data shows that Europe still faces recession pressure, with high unemployment rates and frequent social problems. The rise in the stock market is more due to the demand for capital to seek safety rather than the substantial support of economic recovery. Similarly, the Japanese market has also attracted some capital inflows due to the stability of its mature economy.

避险资产的表现同样印证了这一趋势。美国十年期国债收益率自年初以来有所回落，但仍维持在4.3%左右，吸引了大量追求稳定收益的资金。 The performance of safe - haven assets also confirms this trend. The yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond has declined since the beginning of the year but remains at around 4.3%, attracting a large amount of capital seeking stable returns.

黄金价格自二月起上涨约10%，成为避险情绪升温的直观反映。相比之下，新兴市场因波动性较高，短期内难以承接大规模资金转移。香港市场虽因与国际接轨而获得部分投机资金青睐，但整体吸引力仍不及欧美成熟市场。 The gold price has risen by about 10% since February, which is an intuitive reflection of the increasing risk - aversion sentiment. In contrast, emerging markets are difficult to absorb large - scale capital transfers in the short term due to their high volatility. Although the Hong Kong market has attracted some speculative capital due to its connection with the international market, its overall attractiveness is still inferior to that of mature markets in Europe and the United States.

对国内市场的启示

Implications for the Domestic Market

海外风暴的持续性对国内股市构成双重影响。一方面，关税压力和美股调整可能拖累出口相关板块和科技产业链；另一方面，若美股进一步深度回调，全球避险情绪或推动资金回流亚洲，为A股和港股带来潜在机会。然而，当前阶段，海外扰动尚未消散，投资者需保持谨慎，密切关注4月初的政策落地与市场反应。 The persistence of the overseas storm has a dual impact on the domestic stock market. On the one hand, tariff pressure and the adjustment of the US stock market may drag down export - related sectors and the technology industry chain. On the other hand, if the US stock market experiences a further deep pull - back, global risk - aversion sentiment may drive capital back to Asia, bringing potential opportunities for the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets. However, at the current stage, overseas disturbances have not subsided, and investors need to be cautious and closely monitor the implementation of policies and market reactions in early April.

二、央行政策后劲如何？

II. How Strong is the Follow - up of the Central Bank's Policies?

国内政策的支持力度

Support Strength of Domestic Policies

进入2025年3月，中国央行在货币政策上的态度备受关注。 In March 2025, the attitude of the People's Bank of China towards monetary policy has attracted much attention.

两会结束后，市场期待强有力的政策刺激，但实际出台的政策更多体现为“情绪支撑”而非“真金白银”。例如，近期发布的消费支持文件虽明确了方向，却缺乏具体金额和实施细则。与2015年“4万亿”刺激计划相比，当前政策力度明显偏弱。这种宽泛性使得市场难以形成明确的上涨预期，更多表现为短期情绪提振。 After the Two Sessions, the market expected strong policy stimuli, but the actual policies introduced mainly provided "sentiment support" rather than "real - money" incentives. For example, the recently released consumption - support document clarifies the direction but lacks specific amounts and implementation details. Compared with the "4 - trillion" stimulus plan in 2015, the current policy strength is significantly weaker. This generality makes it difficult for the market to form a clear expectation of an upward trend, and it mainly shows short - term sentiment boosting.

宏观数据的表现为政策预期提供了些许支撑。1 - 2月社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，略超市场预期的3.5%；工业增加值和固定资产投资数据也超出预期。这种“超预期”表现为市场注入了一定暖意，但其可持续性存疑。消费数据的改善可能更多源于春节效应，而非结构性复苏。相比之下，房地产投资仍在大幅下挫，二手房价格持续下滑，显示经济基本面的压力并未缓解。 The performance of macro data provides some support for policy expectations. From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 3.5%. The data on industrial added value and fixed - asset investment also exceeded expectations. This "better - than - expected" performance has injected some warmth into the market, but its sustainability is questionable. The improvement in consumption data may be more due to the Spring Festival effect rather than structural recovery. In contrast, real - estate investment is still falling sharply, and second - hand housing prices continue to decline, indicating that the pressure on the economic fundamentals has not been relieved.

货币政策的冷眼旁观

The Indifference of Monetary Policy

央行在债券市场的态度进一步印证了政策后劲的不足。截至3月18日，央行持续净回笼资金，对债券市场回调未予明显干预。十年期国债收益率仅为1.9%，与美国4.3%的水平形成巨大利差。这种低收益率环境限制了国内资金的吸引力，也为后续政策空间留下了想象余地。若未来经济下行压力加剧，降息或大规模流动性投放的可能性仍存，但当前央行更倾向于观望，等待更明确的信号。 The central bank's attitude in the bond market further confirms the lack of follow - up of policies. As of March 18, the central bank has continuously net - withdrawn funds and has not significantly intervened in the bond - market pull - back. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is only 1.9%, forming a huge spread with the 4.3% level in the United States. This low - yield environment limits the attractiveness of domestic capital and also leaves room for future policy adjustments. If the downward pressure on the economy intensifies in the future, there is still a possibility of interest - rate cuts or large - scale liquidity injections, but currently, the central bank prefers to wait and see for clearer signals.

对股市的隐性影响

Implicit Impact on the Stock Market

央行政策的谨慎态度对股市的影响具有两面性。 The central bank's cautious attitude towards policies has a two - sided impact on the stock market.

一方面，缺乏强刺激意味着市场难以快速升温，科技等高弹性板块可能继续承压；另一方面，稳健的政策基调为红利类资产提供了相对安全的土壤。以银行为代表的红利板块因其高股息率（部分标的达7%）和稳定现金流，在市场降温期表现出较强的抗跌性。然而，这种板块的低弹性也决定了其难以成为市场的主导力量。 On the one hand, the lack of strong stimuli means that the market is difficult to heat up quickly, and high - elasticity sectors such as technology may continue to face pressure. On the other hand, the prudent policy tone provides a relatively safe environment for dividend - type assets. The dividend - paying sector represented by banks shows strong resistance to declines during the market cooling - off period due to its high dividend yield (up to 7% for some stocks) and stable cash flow. However, the low elasticity of this sector also determines that it is difficult to become the dominant force in the market.

三、全球资金回流会促涨国内股市吗？

III. Will Global Capital Repatriation Boost the Domestic Stock Market?

资金流动的现状与瓶颈

Current Situation and Bottlenecks of Capital Flows

截至3月18日，全球资金回流国内股市的迹象并不明显。监测数据显示，流入A股和港股的资金主要为短期投机性资金，而非长线配置型资金。印度市场近期回调后，部分资金流向香港市场，但整体规模有限，且多为亚洲内部的重新分配。美国市场调整引发的资金外溢更多流向欧洲和避险资产，亚洲市场尚未成为主要 destination. As of March 18, there are no obvious signs of global capital flowing back to the domestic stock market. Monitoring data shows that the funds flowing into the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets are mainly short - term speculative funds rather than long - term allocation funds. After the recent pull - back in the Indian market, some funds have flowed to the Hong Kong market, but the overall scale is limited, and most of it is a redistribution within Asia. The capital overflow caused by the adjustment of the US market has mostly flowed to Europe and safe - haven assets, and the Asian market has not yet become the main destination.

人民币汇率和中美利差是制约资金回流的关键因素。当前，人民币兑美元汇率在7.22 - 7.25区间震荡，缺乏升值动力。中美十年期国债收益率利差高达230个基点（2.3%），对配置型资金形成明显阻力。若利差缩减至100个基点以内，或人民币升值至7.1以下，可能触发外资的实质性回流。然而，短期内实现这一目标的难度较大。 The RMB exchange rate and the Sino - US interest - rate spread are the key factors restricting capital repatriation. Currently, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate fluctuates in the range of 7.22 - 7.25, lacking the momentum for appreciation. The spread between the yields of the Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds is as high as 230 basis points (2.3%), which poses an obvious resistance to allocation - type funds. If the spread is reduced to less than 100 basis points or the RMB appreciates to below 7.1, it may trigger a substantial return of foreign capital. However, it is difficult to achieve this goal in the short term.

潜在的回流场景与影响

Potential Repatriation Scenarios and Their Impacts

历史上，外资回流曾显著推动国内股市上涨。2018 - 2019年，随着MSCI included A - shares, foreign capital continuously increased its investment in the consumption and technology sectors, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to rebound from 2440 points to 3288 points. If a similar scenario occurs in 2025, Internet platforms and new - consumption targets in the Hong Kong stock market, as well as technology leaders in the A - share market, may benefit first. Foreign capital prefers industries with obvious leading - company effects, and its allocation logic often benchmarks against giants in the US market, emphasizing a combination of growth and stability.

然而，当前市场风格的转变仍需时间。外部扰动未解，国内政策力度有限，资金回流的窗口可能推迟至美股调整到位或国内经济信号更加明朗之时。投资者应关注汇率和利差的动态变化，作为判断资金流向的前瞻性指标。 However, the transformation of the current market style still takes time. External disturbances remain unresolved, and domestic policy strength is limited. The window for capital repatriation may be postponed until the adjustment of the US stock market is completed or domestic economic signals become clearer. Investors should pay attention to the dynamic changes in exchange rates and interest - rate spreads as forward - looking indicators for judging capital flows.

四、三月能借到顺风的赛道有哪些？

IV. Which Sectors Can Catch a Favorable Wind in March?

科技赛道的降温与潜力

Cooling - off and Potential of the Technology Sector

二月科技板块的亮眼表现（人工智能指数涨幅近20%）在三月显著降温。自2月28日起，科技指数出现震荡回调，市场情绪从亢奋转向观望。这种降温源于多重因素：一是海外扰动对科技产业链的压制；二是国内政策支持力度未达预期。然而，科技赛道并未就此沉寂。2025年被视为人工智能“涌现式”发展的关键年份，自动驾驶、人形机器人等领域可能迎来现象级突破。投资者可关注后续窗口期，尤其是二三季度潜在的科技行情。 The outstanding performance of the technology sector in February (the artificial - intelligence index rose by nearly 20%) cooled significantly in March. Since February 28, the technology index has fluctuated and pulled back, and market sentiment has shifted from excitement to wait - and - see. This cooling - off is due to multiple factors: first, overseas disturbances have suppressed the technology industry chain; second, the domestic policy support has fallen short of expectations. However, the technology sector has not become silent. The year 2025 is regarded as a crucial year for the "emergent" development of artificial intelligence, and fields such as autonomous driving and humanoid robots may witness phenomenal breakthroughs. Investors can pay attention to the subsequent windows, especially the potential technology market in the second and third quarters.

红利板块的稳健价值

Stable Value of the Dividend - paying Sector

在科技退潮之际，红利板块成为资金的避风港。以银行为代表的红利资产在三月表现平稳，涨幅略高于市场平均水平（沪深300涨幅约2%）。其高股息率和低波动性使其在市场降温期具备防御属性。然而，红利板块的低弹性也决定了其难以引领大行情，更适合作为配置中的“稳定器”。 As the technology sector fades, the dividend - paying sector has become a safe haven for funds. Dividend - paying assets represented by banks performed steadily in March, with a slightly higher increase than the market average (the CSI 300 index rose by about 2%). Their high dividend yield and low volatility give them defensive properties during the market cooling - off period. However, the low elasticity of the dividend - paying sector also determines that it is difficult to lead a major market rally and is more suitable as a "stabilizer" in asset allocation.

消费与房地产的洼地效应

The Low - lying Land Effect of the Consumption and Real - Estate Sectors

消费板块在三月异军突起，尤其是近期受到政策利好和数据超预期的双重提振。尽管基本面未见实质改善，但其“绝望之谷”后的补涨逻辑吸引了部分资金。例如，白酒、家电等子行业在过去一周录得5% - 10%的反弹。类似地，房地产虽数据低迷，但作为 a long - standing difficult sector, it may迎来 short - term repair opportunities due to the low - lying land effect. This catch - up rally has limited elasticity and is more likely to be a pulse - like performance driven by sentiment.

投资策略的节奏把握

Grasping the Rhythm of Investment Strategies

三月市场的核心特征是“小降温”而非“大冰点”，资金仍在寻找机会。 The core feature of the market in March is a "minor cooling - off" rather than a "major freeze", and funds are still looking for opportunities.

投资者应注重节奏搭配：科技赛道着眼长期潜力，红利板块提供稳健支撑，消费与房地产则可适度博弈短期反弹。案例显示，2020年疫情后市场分化期，科技与消费轮动特征明显，提前布局的投资者往往 benefited greatly. Investors should pay attention to the rhythm of allocation: focus on the long - term potential of the technology sector, use the dividend - paying sector for stable support, and moderately bet on the short - term rebound of the consumption and real - estate sectors. Cases show that during the market differentiation period after the pandemic in 2020, the rotation between the technology and consumption sectors was obvious, and investors who made early arrangements often benefited greatly.

总结一下

Summary

2025年3月，股市攻势尚未全面开启，但也未陷入冰点。海外扰动持续发酵，央行政策后劲有限，全球资金回流尚待时日，三月顺风赛道则呈现分化格局。投资者需摒弃盲从情绪，依托数据与逻辑把握节奏。 In March 2025, the stock - market offensive has not fully started, but it has not reached a freezing point either. Overseas disturbances continue to ferment, the follow - up of the central bank's policies is limited, and global capital repatriation still takes time. The sectors with favorable winds in March show a differentiated pattern. Investors need to abandon blind - following sentiment and grasp the rhythm based on data and logic.

在不确定性中寻找确定性，方能在资本市场中行稳致远。 Only by seeking certainty in uncertainty can one make steady progress in the capital market.