2025年第二季度投资风向：科技引领未来，算力与人工智能驱动产业变革

Investment Trends in the Second Quarter of 2025: Technology Leads the Future, and Computing Power and Artificial Intelligence Drive Industrial Transformation

引言

Introduction

2025年3月20日，正值全球经济格局风云变幻之际，中国资本市场正迎来新一轮的投资热潮。 On March 20, 2025, as the global economic landscape is undergoing rapid changes, China's capital market is witnessing a new wave of investment enthusiasm.

在这一背景下，科技产业以其无可替代的增长潜力和创新动能，成为投资者关注的焦点。本文基于破竹2025年3月19日的直播内容梳理，对2025年第二季度投资趋势的深入分析，结合行业动态与企业案例，探讨科技领域的核心机会，特别是人工智能（AI）和算力产业链的前景，并剖析传统行业与新兴产业的对比，旨在为投资者提供清晰的逻辑框架和前瞻性洞察。 Against this backdrop, the technology industry, with its irreplaceable growth potential and innovative momentum, has become the focus of investors' attention. This article is based on the content of the live broadcast by Pozhu on March 19, 2025. It conducts an in - depth analysis of the investment trends in the second quarter of 2025, combines industry dynamics with corporate cases, explores the core opportunities in the technology field, especially the prospects of the artificial intelligence (AI) and computing power industrial chains, and analyzes the comparison between traditional industries and emerging industries. The aim is to provide investors with a clear logical framework and forward - looking insights.

对内容感兴趣的朋友可观看直播回放：https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67d3eacbe4b0694c5aa96a41/4 或者进富途的社群「交易大学」：https://snsim.futunn.com/share/server/RSmdn?_ftsdk=1740387113624750&lang=zh-cn Friends interested in the content can watch the live - broadcast replay at: https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67d3eacbe4b0694c5aa96a41/4 Or join the Futu community "Trading University" at: https://snsim.futunn.com/share/server/RSmdn?_ftsdk=1740387113624750&lang=zh-cn

一、科技引领经济增长的核心逻辑

I. The Core Logic of Technology Leading Economic Growth

1.1 传统行业的疲软与科技的崛起

1.1 The Weakness of Traditional Industries and the Rise of Technology

当前，中国经济正处于转型的关键节点。传统行业如白酒、消费品、金融和基建等，普遍面临增长乏力的困境。以白酒行业为例，尽管头部企业如茅台依然保持稳定的现金流和订单量，但中小型企业的生存空间已显著萎缩。 Currently, China's economy is at a critical juncture of transformation. Traditional industries such as liquor, consumer goods, finance, and infrastructure are generally facing the dilemma of sluggish growth. Take the liquor industry as an example. Although leading enterprises like Moutai still maintain stable cash flow and order volume, the survival space of small and medium - sized enterprises has significantly shrunk.

贵州茅台镇的实地观察显示，许多非头部酒企的生意大幅下滑，甚至有商人计划转行投资医疗器械和生物医药。 Field observations in Maotai Town, Guizhou, show that the business of many non - leading liquor enterprises has declined significantly, and some businessmen even plan to switch to investing in medical devices and biomedicine.

这一现象反映出传统行业在需求饱和和政策调整下的增长瓶颈。 This phenomenon reflects the growth bottlenecks of traditional industries under the conditions of saturated demand and policy adjustments.

与之形成鲜明对比的是科技产业的蓬勃发展。人工智能、算力基础设施及相关硬件的快速迭代，正推动人类生产力和经济结构的深刻变革。 In sharp contrast, the technology industry is booming. The rapid iteration of artificial intelligence, computing power infrastructure, and related hardware is driving profound changes in human productivity and economic structure.

科技行业的增长不再依赖传统经济的线性扩张，而是通过技术突破实现指数级跃升。这种趋势在全球范围内均有体现，尤其是在中美科技竞争加剧的背景下，中国科技企业的内生动力和外部需求同步增强。 The growth of the technology industry no longer relies on the linear expansion of the traditional economy but achieves exponential leaps through technological breakthroughs. This trend is evident globally, especially against the backdrop of intensified Sino - US technological competition. The internal drive and external demand of Chinese technology enterprises are increasing simultaneously.

1.2 人工智能与算力的战略地位

1.2 The Strategic Position of Artificial Intelligence and Computing Power

人工智能作为科技领域的核心驱动力，其重要性在2025年进一步凸显。 As the core driving force in the technology field, the importance of artificial intelligence has become even more prominent in 2025.

英伟达CEO黄仁勋在近期演讲中指出，AI已从预训练时代进入推理时代，对算力的需求较过去高出百倍。这一判断基于AI系统从简单预测向复杂思维链推理的转变。以中国企业DeepSeek的大模型为例，其推理过程通过逐步生成完整步骤，不仅提升了答案的准确性，还将单个查询的token需求增加了十倍以上，处理速度要求同步提升，导致计算需求的爆发式增长。 Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, pointed out in a recent speech that AI has entered the inference era from the pre - training era, and the demand for computing power is a hundred times higher than before. This judgment is based on the transformation of AI systems from simple prediction to complex thinking - chain reasoning. Taking the large - scale model of Chinese enterprise DeepSeek as an example, its reasoning process generates complete steps step by step, which not only improves the accuracy of answers but also increases the token demand for a single query by more than ten times. The requirement for processing speed also increases synchronously, leading to an explosive growth in computing demand.

算力作为AI的底层支撑，其产业链涵盖芯片设计、服务器制造、高密度互连板（HDI）生产等多个环节。无论是美国的英伟达、AMD，还是中国的华为、中科曙光，算力基础设施的竞争已成为科技领域的制高点。 As the underlying support for AI, the computing power industrial chain covers multiple links such as chip design, server manufacturing, and high - density interconnect (HDI) board production. Whether it is NVIDIA and AMD in the United States or Huawei and Sugon in China, the competition for computing power infrastructure has become the high - ground in the technology field.

在中国，政府和企业对算力的投入力度空前，仅2025年预计总投资将超过千亿美元。这一规模虽不及美国过去数年的资本开支存量，但足以支撑中国算力产业的快速追赶。 In China, the government and enterprises are making unprecedented investments in computing power. It is estimated that the total investment in 2025 alone will exceed 100 billion US dollars. Although this scale is smaller than the accumulated capital expenditure of the United States in the past few years, it is sufficient to support the rapid catch - up of China's computing power industry.

二、算力产业链的投资机会

II. Investment Opportunities in the Computing Power Industrial Chain

2.1 PCB与HDI：算力硬件的隐形冠军

2.1 PCB and HDI: The Invisible Champions of Computing Power Hardware

在算力产业链中，印刷电路板（PCB）及其高阶形态HDI板的重要性不容忽视。 In the computing power industrial chain, the importance of printed circuit boards (PCBs) and their high - order form, HDI boards, cannot be ignored.

PCB作为电子设备的"神经网络"，承载着芯片与服务器的高速数据传输需求。随着AI服务器对低延迟、高带宽的要求提升，传统消费电子的薄板已无法满足需要，取而代之的是多层、高密度、盲埋孔设计的HDI板。 As the "neural network" of electronic devices, PCBs carry the high - speed data transmission requirements between chips and servers. With the increasing requirements of AI servers for low latency and high bandwidth, the thin boards used in traditional consumer electronics can no longer meet the needs, and are being replaced by HDI boards with multi - layer, high - density, and blind - buried via designs.

以胜宏科技为例，其生产的第五代HDI板采用0.076毫米激光孔径和288层复合介质设计，每层厚度误差控制在0.8微米级别，制造难度堪比航天器零件。这种技术进步不仅满足了英伟达GB200芯片组的需求，还推动了公司在全球供应链中的地位提升。 Taking Shenghong Technology as an example, its fifth - generation HDI boards use a 0.076 - millimeter laser aperture and a 288 - layer composite medium design, with the thickness error of each layer controlled at the 0.8 - micron level. The manufacturing difficulty is comparable to that of spacecraft parts. This technological progress not only meets the requirements of NVIDIA's GB200 chipset but also promotes the company's position in the global supply chain.

胜宏在泰国春武里府建立的影子工厂，通过产线数据同步和48小时全球应急交付能力，有效规避了地缘政治风险，并获得美国国防部认证，进一步巩固了其竞争优势。 The shadow factory established by Shenghong in Chonburi Province, Thailand, effectively avoids geopolitical risks through production line data synchronization and 48 - hour global emergency delivery capabilities. It has also obtained certification from the US Department of Defense, further consolidating its competitive advantage.

类似的案例还有景旺电子和深南电路。前者凭借全面的业务布局在PCB领域占据一席之地，后者则依托中国芯片产业的崛起，展现出强劲的增长潜力。这些企业的共同特点是技术壁垒高、市场需求旺盛，且与头部科技公司的合作关系紧密，具备长期增长空间。 Similar cases include Kingwant Electronics and Shennan Circuits. The former has a foothold in the PCB field with its comprehensive business layout, while the latter shows strong growth potential relying on the rise of China's chip industry. These enterprises are characterized by high technological barriers, strong market demand, and close cooperation relationships with leading technology companies, and they have long - term growth potential.

2.2 中国算力的崛起与全球竞争

2.2 The Rise of China's Computing Power and Global Competition

中国算力产业的崛起不仅是国内科技自立自强的体现，也与全球竞争格局密切相关。英伟达虽在算力领域占据领先地位，但其收入过于集中于数据中心业务，游戏和自动驾驶板块表现疲软，导致估值波动较大。与此同时，中国企业如华为凭借910C芯片、中科曙光通过AI服务器布局，正逐步缩小与美国的差距。 The rise of China's computing power industry is not only a manifestation of domestic technological self - reliance but also closely related to the global competition landscape. Although NVIDIA leads in the computing power field, its revenue is overly concentrated in the data center business, and its game and autonomous driving segments perform weakly, resulting in large valuation fluctuations. Meanwhile, Chinese enterprises such as Huawei with its 910C chip and Sugon through its AI server layout are gradually narrowing the gap with the United States.

从投资视角看，中国算力产业的增长潜力体现在两个方面：一是内需驱动，阿里、字节、腾讯等科技巨头每年投入数百亿人民币用于算力建设；二是出口潜力，中国PCB和服务器零部件已广泛服务于英伟达、AMD等美国企业。尽管中美脱钩风险加剧，中国企业在国内市场的替代需求和全球化布局（如盛宏的泰国工厂）为其提供了缓冲空间。预计未来五年，中国算力产业规模有望实现十倍以上增长，头部企业将显著受益。 From an investment perspective, the growth potential of China's computing power industry is reflected in two aspects: First, it is driven by domestic demand. Technology giants such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent invest tens of billions of RMB in computing power construction every year. Second, there is export potential. Chinese PCBs and server components have been widely used by American enterprises such as NVIDIA and AMD. Despite the increasing risk of Sino - US decoupling, the substitution demand in the domestic market and the global layout of Chinese enterprises (such as Shenghong's factory in Thailand) provide them with a buffer space. It is expected that the scale of China's computing power industry will grow more than tenfold in the next five years, and leading enterprises will benefit significantly.

三、典型科技企业的投资价值分析

III. Analysis of the Investment Value of Typical Technology Enterprises

3.1 小米：高预期下的隐忧

3.1 Xiaomi: Hidden Concerns under High Expectations

小米作为消费电子与智能汽车领域的代表，其2024年第四季度业绩显示出一定的亮点。收入同比增长49%，手机平均售价升至1200元，物联网（IoT）业务受益于国家补贴增长50%，汽车业务毛利率达20%。不过需要注意，核心经营利润58亿元低于市场预期，调整后净利润83亿元中包含大量财务收益，无法真实反映主营业务的盈利能力。 As a representative in the fields of consumer electronics and smart cars, Xiaomi's performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 showed some bright spots. Its revenue increased by 49% year - on - year, the average selling price of mobile phones rose to 1200 yuan, the Internet of Things (IoT) business grew by 50% thanks to national subsidies, and the gross profit margin of the automobile business reached 20%. However, it should be noted that the core operating profit of 5.8 billion yuan was lower than market expectations, and the adjusted net profit of 8.3 billion yuan included a large amount of financial income, which could not truly reflect the profitability of the main business.

高企的研发和销售费用进一步侵蚀了利润，显示出收入增长的部分依赖广告投入而非内生竞争力。 High R & D and sales expenses further eroded profits, indicating that part of the revenue growth relied on advertising investment rather than internal competitiveness.

小米汽车的高市场预期为其股价提供了支撑，但自动驾驶技术的短板和竞争对手（如华为、比亚迪）的领先优势，可能会限制其长期增长。 The high market expectations for Xiaomi cars support its stock price, but the short - coming in autonomous driving technology and the leading advantages of competitors (such as Huawei and BYD) may limit its long - term growth.

投资者需警惕预期过热带来的估值风险，小米的投资价值更多依赖于量产能力和成本控制的持续改善。 Investors need to be wary of the valuation risks caused by over - heated expectations. The investment value of Xiaomi more depends on the continuous improvement of mass - production capacity and cost control.

3.2 腾讯：稳健中的转型压力

3.2 Tencent: Transformation Pressure Amidst Stability

腾讯2024年第四季度表现平稳，收入和利润均符合预期，游戏业务保持增长，广告和云服务板块有所回暖。然而，其估值水平已接近历史低点，反映出市场对其增长潜力的谨慎态度。AI时代的到来为腾讯提供了转型机遇，如元宝大模型的推出显示出其在AI领域的布局野心。 Tencent performed steadily in the fourth quarter of 2024. Its revenue and profit met expectations, the game business continued to grow, and the advertising and cloud service segments recovered to some extent. However, its valuation level has approached a historical low, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards its growth potential. The arrival of the AI era provides Tencent with transformation opportunities. For example, the launch of the Yuanbao large - scale model shows its ambition in the AI field.

但与硬核科技企业相比，腾讯的科技属性偏弱，更多依赖流量变现而非技术创新。 However, compared with hardcore technology enterprises, Tencent has a relatively weak technological attribute and relies more on traffic monetization than technological innovation.

对于投资者而言，腾讯的吸引力在于其稳定的现金流和高分红潜力，而非爆发式增长。在科技热潮降温后，腾讯可能因其低估值和高安全性重新获得市场青睐，但短期内难以成为领涨龙头。 For investors, Tencent's appeal lies in its stable cash flow and high dividend - paying potential rather than explosive growth. After the technology boom cools down, Tencent may regain market favor due to its low valuation and high safety, but it is difficult to become a leading stock in the short term.

四、其他行业的前景与风险

IV. Prospects and Risks of Other Industries

4.1 医药行业：低估值的反弹机会

4.1 Pharmaceutical Industry: Rebound Opportunities at Low Valuations

医药行业在过去三年估值跌至历史低位（约3%分位），但2025年政策调整为其带来转机。两会提出优化集采政策、增加商保支付渠道等措施，有望缓解行业压力。公募基金对医药的低配状态也为增持提供了空间。尽管科技板块仍是主流，医药作为防御性资产，可能在市场风格切换时迎来阶段性机会。 The valuation of the pharmaceutical industry has dropped to a historical low (around the 3rd percentile) in the past three years, but policy adjustments in 2025 bring a turning point. The Two Sessions proposed measures such as optimizing the centralized procurement policy and increasing commercial insurance payment channels, which are expected to relieve the pressure on the industry. The under - allocation of pharmaceutical stocks by public funds also provides room for increasing holdings. Although the technology sector remains the mainstream, as a defensive asset, the pharmaceutical industry may see periodic opportunities when the market style switches.

4.2 黄金：高位回调的风险

4.2 Gold: Risks of a Pullback from High Levels

黄金价格自2022年的1600美元/盎司上涨至2025年的3100美元/盎司，远超生产成本。然而，随着欧洲冲突缓和及美元阶段性贬值，黄金缺乏进一步上行动力。从2900美元到3100美元的150美元涨幅已超出预期，短期内存在回调风险。相比之下，科技资产的性价比和增长空间更具吸引力。 The price of gold has risen from $1600 per ounce in 2022 to $3100 per ounce in 2025, far exceeding the production cost. However, with the easing of conflicts in Europe and the periodic depreciation of the US dollar, gold lacks further upward momentum. The $150 increase from $2900 to $3100 has exceeded expectations, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback. In contrast, the cost - effectiveness and growth potential of technology assets are more attractive.

五、投资策略与展望

V. Investment Strategies and Outlook

5.1 聚焦科技主线，分散风险

5.1 Focus on the Technology Mainline and Diversify Risks

基于上述分析，2025年第二季度的投资主线应聚焦科技领域，特别是算力产业链和人工智能相关企业。 Based on the above analysis, the investment mainline in the second quarter of 2025 should focus on the technology field, especially the computing power industrial chain and artificial - intelligence - related enterprises.

建议投资者通过分散配置（如PCB龙头组合）降低单一公司风险，同时关注政策支持下的国产替代机会，如中控技术、汇川技术等工业控制企业。 It is recommended that investors reduce the risk of a single company through diversified allocation (such as a combination of leading PCB enterprises) and pay attention to domestic substitution opportunities supported by policies, such as industrial control enterprises like SUPCON and Inovance Technology.

5.2 平衡成长与价值

5.2 Balance Growth and Value

在科技热潮中，兼顾成长性与价值性的资产配置至关重要。高增长的科技股如盛宏需警惕估值波动，而低估值的稳健标的如中国移动、腾讯则可作为组合的稳定器。黄金和医药等非科技资产可作为辅助选择，用于对冲市场不确定性。 In the technology boom, asset allocation that takes into account both growth and value is crucial. For high - growth technology stocks like Shenghong, investors need to be wary of valuation fluctuations, while low - valuation and stable stocks such as China Mobile and Tencent can serve as stabilizers in the portfolio. Non - technology assets such as gold and pharmaceuticals can be used as auxiliary options to hedge against market uncertainties.

5.3 长期视角下的产业趋势

5.3 Industrial Trends from a Long - Term Perspective

从长期看，人工智能和算力革命将重塑全球经济格局。中国企业在这一浪潮中的崛起，不仅是技术进步的体现，也是国家战略的成果。投资者应以产业趋势为导向，摒弃短期股价波动的执念，抓住科技驱动的结构性机会。 In the long run, the artificial intelligence and computing power revolution will reshape the global economic landscape. The rise of Chinese enterprises in this wave is not only a manifestation of technological progress but also the result of national strategies. Investors should be guided by industrial trends, abandon the obsession with short - term stock price fluctuations, and seize the structural opportunities driven by technology.

结语

Conclusion

2025年第二季度，科技产业以其强大的增长动能和战略价值，成为投资领域的核心主线。 In the second quarter of 2025, the technology industry, with its strong growth momentum and strategic value, has become the core mainline in the investment field.

算力产业链的崛起、小米与腾讯的转型探索，以及医药和黄金的阶段性机会，共同构成了多元化的投资图景。 The rise of the computing power industrial chain, the transformation exploration of Xiaomi and Tencent, and the periodic opportunities in the pharmaceutical and gold industries together constitute a diversified investment landscape.

在这一历史性转折点，理性分析与前瞻布局将助力投资者在变革中把握先机，迎接中国科技牛市的到来。 At this historical turning point, rational analysis and forward - looking layout will help investors seize the opportunity in the transformation and embrace the coming of China's technology bull market.