科技主线巨震后的二季度展望：趋势延续与配置抉择

Outlook for the Second Quarter after the Severe Shock of the Technology Mainline: Trend Continuation and Allocation Choices

2025年3月25日，随着一季度的落幕，中国资本市场进入关键转折期。 On March 25, 2025, with the end of the first quarter, China's capital market entered a crucial turning point.

上证指数突破3400点，科技主线经历显著调整，市场情绪在亢奋与谨慎间摇摆。 The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,400 points, and the technology mainline underwent significant adjustments. Market sentiment wavered between exuberance and caution.

二季度即将来临，投资者面临新的抉择：是追逐热点，还是布局低估值？恒生科技的强势能否延续？财报季将揭示哪些真相？如何均衡配置以应对不确定性？ As the second quarter is approaching, investors are facing new choices: Should they chase hot spots or invest in undervalued stocks? Can the strength of the Hang Seng Tech Index continue? What truths will the earnings season reveal? How can they achieve a balanced allocation to cope with uncertainties?

本文基于破竹公开直播内容，结合资本市场近期走势，将围绕这四大主题展开深度分析，结合市场数据与历史案例，旨在为投资者提供理性洞察与策略指引，揭示科技主线巨震后的市场本质与潜在方向。 Based on the content of the public live broadcast of PoZhu and combined with the recent trends in the capital market, this article will conduct in - depth analyses around these four major themes. By integrating market data and historical cases, it aims to provide investors with rational insights and strategic guidance, and reveal the market essence and potential directions after the severe shock of the technology mainline.

一、当下抉择：追逐热点还是布局低估值？

I. Current Choices: Chasing Hot Spots or Investing in Undervalued Stocks?

热点的本质与现状

The Nature and Current Situation of Hot Spots

2025年一季度，A股市场的热点集中于科技领域，人形机器人、AI+（人工智能叠加概念）以及深海科技成为资金追逐的焦点。人形机器人板块自2024年底以来涨幅惊人，部分个股累计上涨数倍，市值迅速膨胀。 In the first quarter of 2025, the hot spots in the A - share market were concentrated in the technology sector. Humanoid robots, AI+ (the concept of artificial intelligence superposition), and deep - sea technology became the focus of capital chasing. Since the end of 2024, the humanoid robot sector has seen astonishing gains, with some individual stocks rising several times in cumulative terms, and their market values expanding rapidly.

但许多上市公司近期发布公告，明确表示业务与人形机器人无关或尚未产生收入，显示炒作已从核心企业扩散至边缘标的，估值泡沫化迹象明显。AI+概念同样炙手可热，尽管部分细分赛道（如DeepSeek）展现潜力，但整体估值已超越美国同行，科创50市盈率高达50倍以上，远高于纳斯达克科技股平均水平。 However, many listed companies have recently issued announcements clearly stating that their businesses are not related to humanoid robots or have not generated any revenue yet, indicating that the speculation has spread from core enterprises to peripheral targets, and there are obvious signs of valuation bubbles. The AI+ concept is also extremely popular. Although some sub - sectors (such as DeepSeek) show potential, the overall valuation has exceeded that of their US counterparts. The price - to - earnings ratio of the STAR 50 Index is as high as over 50 times, far higher than the average level of technology stocks on the Nasdaq.

深海科技作为新兴热点，近两三周表现抢眼，但其持续性尚待验证。 As an emerging hot spot, deep - sea technology has performed remarkably in the past two or three weeks, but its sustainability remains to be verified.

与此同时，恒生科技指数成为另一大热点。自2024年9月底政策转向以来，南下资金持续净流入，推高指数50%以上。龙头企业如腾讯，其估值从低估状态修复至与美国Meta相当的合理水平，短期上涨动能减弱。 Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Tech Index has become another major hot spot. Since the policy shift at the end of September 2024, southbound capital has continued to flow in, driving the index up by more than 50%. For leading enterprises such as Tencent, their valuations have recovered from the undervalued state to a reasonable level comparable to that of Meta in the United States, and the short - term upward momentum has weakened.

这些热点的共同特征是资金驱动下的高波动与高估值，春季行情上半场的"增量资金"效应已逐步消退，进入存量博弈的下半场。 The common characteristics of these hot spots are high volatility and high valuation driven by capital. The "incremental capital" effect in the first half of the spring market has gradually faded away, and the market has entered the second half of the stock - based game.

低估值的潜在机会

Potential Opportunities in Undervalued Stocks

相较于热点板块的喧嚣，低估值板块在分化行情中崭露头角。以银行股为例，其估值普遍低于净资产，股息率维持在5% - 6%区间，如中国神华最新分配方案显示年化股息率达6.2%，具备较强吸引力。传统消费板块如白酒虽因经济下行承压，但部分龙头企业估值已回落至历史低位，具备修复空间。 Compared with the hustle and bustle of hot - spot sectors, undervalued sectors have emerged in the differentiated market. Take bank stocks as an example. Their valuations are generally lower than their net assets, and the dividend yields are maintained in the range of 5% - 6%. For instance, the latest distribution plan of China Shenhua shows an annualized dividend yield of 6.2%, which is quite attractive. Although traditional consumer sectors such as the liquor industry are under pressure due to the economic downturn, the valuations of some leading enterprises have fallen to historical lows and have room for recovery.

数据显示，自2021年以来，传统行业指数（如沪深300）表现低迷，而成长型指数（如中证1000）涨幅显著，低估值板块的滞涨为其提供了补涨潜力。 Data shows that since 2021, traditional industry indices (such as the CSI 300) have performed poorly, while growth - oriented indices (such as the CSI 1000) have risen significantly. The stagnant growth of undervalued sectors provides them with the potential for a catch - up rise.

抉择的逻辑与策略

The Logic and Strategies for Making Choices

追逐热点还是布局低估值，取决于投资者的目标与风险偏好。若以博弈为主，赚取短期差价，热点板块仍是首选，尤其是成交量最大的科技类标的，因其趋势性强、资金关注度高。然而，趋势交易需顺势而为，逢回调加仓而非逆势抄底，以降低追高风险。历史案例显示，2015年科技股热潮中，逆势抄底者往往被套山顶，而顺势操作者获利颇丰。 Whether to chase hot spots or invest in undervalued stocks depends on investors' goals and risk preferences. If the main goal is to play the game and earn short - term spreads, hot - spot sectors are still the first choice, especially technology - related targets with the largest trading volumes, as they have strong trends and high capital attention. However, trend trading should follow the trend. Investors should add positions on pullbacks rather than bottom - fishing against the trend to reduce the risk of chasing high prices. Historical cases show that during the technology stock boom in 2015, those who bottom - fished against the trend were often trapped at the peak, while those who followed the trend made substantial profits.

对于追求稳健收益的投资者，低估值板块更具价值。银行、煤炭等高股息资产在市场调整时可提供缓冲，而消费类龙头则有望在经济复苏中反弹。关键在于避免盲目追高或过度分散，聚焦基本面扎实、估值合理的标的。当前市场成交量仅1.6万亿，难以支撑全面普涨，资金腾挪特征明显，投资者需精准把握轮动节奏。 For investors seeking stable returns, undervalued sectors are more valuable. High - dividend assets such as banks and coal can provide a buffer during market adjustments, while leading consumer companies are expected to rebound during the economic recovery. The key is to avoid blindly chasing high prices or over - diversifying and focus on targets with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Currently, the market trading volume is only 1.6 trillion yuan, which is difficult to support a comprehensive upward trend. The capital rotation is obvious, and investors need to accurately grasp the rotation rhythm.

二、恒生科技与恒生指数：强势能否延续？

II. Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Index: Can the Strength Continue?

强势的驱动力

Driving Forces behind the Strength

恒生科技指数与恒生指数自2024年9月底以来表现强势，累计涨幅超50%，远超同期A股主要指数。这一轮上涨主要由南下资金推动，数据显示，过去两个月南下资金日均净流入80亿至200亿，显著提升市场流动性。以腾讯为代表的科技龙头估值修复明显，其股价从低点反弹50%，反映市场对政策支持与经济复苏预期的乐观情绪。 Since the end of September 2024, the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index have shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of more than 50%, far exceeding the major A - share indices during the same period. This round of rise is mainly driven by southbound capital. Data shows that in the past two months, the average daily net inflow of southbound capital has been between 8 billion and 20 billion yuan, significantly improving market liquidity. The valuations of leading technology companies represented by Tencent have recovered significantly, and its stock price has rebounded by 50% from the low point, reflecting the market's optimistic sentiment towards policy support and economic recovery expectations.

然而，AH溢价指数（A股相对H股的估值差）显示，港股短期涨幅过快，已接近过去五年的低点，价差缩窄至30%左右，低于历史均值40% - 50%。 However, the AH premium index (the valuation difference between A - shares and H - shares) shows that the short - term rise of Hong Kong stocks has been too rapid and has approached the low point of the past five years. The price difference has narrowed to about 30%, lower than the historical average of 40% - 50%.

持续性的不确定性

Uncertainty about Sustainability

恒生科技的强势能否延续，取决于增量资金的持续性。从五年维度看，当前AH溢价处于极限位置，港股相对A股的估值优势减弱，短期调整压力加大。然而，拉长至十年视角，港股仍具低估特征，尤其是央企类标的市值低于净资产，存在长期配置价值。摩根大通的分析指出，本轮上涨主要由内资驱动，外资长线资金并未显著加仓中国资产，显示上涨基础并非全面共识。 Whether the strength of the Hang Seng Tech Index can continue depends on the sustainability of incremental capital. From a five - year perspective, the current AH premium is at an extreme level, the valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks relative to A - shares has weakened, and the short - term adjustment pressure has increased. However, from a ten - year perspective, Hong Kong stocks still have the characteristic of being undervalued. Especially for central - state - owned enterprise targets, their market values are lower than their net assets, and there is long - term allocation value. JPMorgan Chase's analysis points out that this round of rise is mainly driven by domestic capital, and long - term foreign capital has not significantly increased its positions in Chinese assets, indicating that the foundation for the rise is not a full - fledged consensus.

存量行情与增量行情的对比进一步揭示问题。A股一季度为典型存量博弈，资金从沪深300流向中证2000，热点轮动频繁但整体量能不足。而港股受益于南下资金的"增量效应"，成交量持续放大。若增量资金枯竭，港股可能陷入"击鼓传花"式博弈，高估值科技股首当其冲。以腾讯为例，其估值已无明显折价，后续上涨需依赖业绩超预期或更大规模资金推动，短期动能趋弱。 The comparison between the stock - based market and the incremental - based market further reveals the problem. The A - share market in the first quarter was a typical stock - based game, with capital flowing from the CSI 300 to the CSI 2000. Hot spots rotated frequently, but the overall trading volume was insufficient. In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market benefited from the "incremental effect" of southbound capital, and the trading volume continued to expand. If the incremental capital dries up, the Hong Kong stock market may fall into a "pass - the - parcel" game, and high - valuation technology stocks will bear the brunt. Take Tencent as an example. Its valuation no longer has an obvious discount, and its subsequent rise will depend on better - than - expected performance or a larger - scale capital push, and the short - term upward momentum is weakening.

配置建议与风险提示

Allocation Suggestions and Risk Warnings

对于短线投资者，恒生科技仍具交易性机会，但需密切关注南下资金流向与成交量变化，一旦缩量或净流出，应及时止盈离场。长线投资者可考虑低估值的港股央企标的，如能源、电信类企业，其高股息与低市净率提供安全边际。风险方面，若中美关税谈判恶化，类似2018年的回调或重演，届时港股可能率先承压，需警惕系统性风险。 For short - term investors, the Hang Seng Tech Index still offers trading opportunities, but they need to closely monitor the flow of southbound capital and changes in trading volume. Once the trading volume shrinks or there is a net outflow, they should take profits and exit in time. Long - term investors can consider undervalued Hong Kong - listed central - state - owned enterprise targets, such as energy and telecommunications companies, whose high dividends and low price - to - book ratios provide a safety margin. In terms of risks, if the Sino - US tariff negotiations deteriorate, a correction similar to that in 2018 may occur again. At that time, the Hong Kong stock market may bear the brunt, and investors need to be vigilant against systematic risks.

三、财报季的考验：预期与现实的碰撞

III. The Test of the Earnings Season: The Collision between Expectations and Reality

财报季的意义

The Significance of the Earnings Season

四月财报季即将来临，年报与一季报将集中披露，成为检验市场预期的关键节点。自2024年9月底政策转向以来，市场上涨半年，科技股炒作多基于"预期故事"，如人形机器人预期特斯拉Optimus量产，AI+期待国产替代突破。然而，业绩兑现能力将成为决定板块命运的分水岭。历史上，2015年科技股热潮后，业绩不及预期导致板块普跌，部分个股回调超50%，揭示了炒作与现实的差距。 The earnings season in April is approaching, and the annual reports and first - quarter reports will be disclosed intensively, which will be a crucial node to test market expectations. Since the policy shift at the end of September 2024, the market has risen for half a year. The speculation on technology stocks is mostly based on "expectation stories". For example, there are expectations for the mass production of Tesla's Optimus in the humanoid robot sector, and hopes for breakthroughs in domestic substitution in the AI+ sector. However, the ability to deliver on performance will be the dividing line that determines the fate of the sectors. Historically, after the technology stock boom in 2015, the failure to meet performance expectations led to a general decline in the sector, and some individual stocks corrected by more than 50%, revealing the gap between speculation and reality.

科技股的业绩压力

Performance Pressure on Technology Stocks

以人形机器人为例，尽管市场预期2025年特斯拉量产5万台，但调研显示多数A股相关企业收入与利润微薄，估值与业绩严重背离。若财报显示业绩增长滞后，资金可能迅速撤离，引发调整。AI+领域同样面临考验，科创50估值高企，而英伟达股价近一个月回调10%，表明全球科技热潮趋于理性，A股若无业绩支撑，恐步其后尘。 Taking humanoid robots as an example, although the market expects Tesla to mass - produce 50,000 units in 2025, research shows that most A - share related companies have meager revenues and profits, and there is a serious deviation between valuation and performance. If the earnings reports show lagging performance growth, capital may quickly withdraw, triggering an adjustment. The AI+ sector is also facing a test. The valuation of the STAR 50 Index is high, and NVIDIA's stock price has corrected by 10% in the past month, indicating that the global technology boom is becoming more rational. If A - shares have no performance support, they may follow in the same footsteps.

分化行情的加剧

Intensification of the Differentiated Market

财报季叠加史上最严退市新规，将加剧市场分化。业绩造假或营收不达标的企业面临退市风险，高估值板块可能率先承压，而低估值板块有望因稳健基本面吸引资金回流。例如，银行股因稳定的盈利能力与高股息率，可能在调整中成为避险选择。消费板块则需警惕通缩压力，2025年CPI跌至 - 0.7%，白酒等行业库存积压，短期反弹动力不足。 The combination of the earnings season and the strictest delisting rules in history will intensify market differentiation. Companies with performance fraud or sub - standard revenues face the risk of delisting. High - valuation sectors may bear the brunt of the pressure, while undervalued sectors are expected to attract capital back due to their solid fundamentals. For example, bank stocks may become a safe - haven choice during the adjustment due to their stable profitability and high dividend yields. The consumer sector needs to be vigilant against deflationary pressure. In 2025, the CPI dropped to - 0.7%, and there is an inventory backlog in industries such as the liquor industry, resulting in insufficient short - term rebound momentum.

应对策略

Coping Strategies

投资者需提前布局财报季机会，关注业绩确定性强的细分赛道，如半导体中的光刻机产业链，若华为研发突破，可能催生长期趋势。同时，避免盲目追逐题材股，优先筛选估值与业绩匹配的标的。四月数据密集披露，市场波动难免，保持观望并结合客观数据分析，将是明智之举。 Investors need to pre - arrange for opportunities during the earnings season and focus on sub - sectors with strong performance certainty, such as the lithography machine industry chain in the semiconductor sector. If Huawei makes a breakthrough in R & D, it may give rise to a long - term trend. At the same time, they should avoid blindly chasing theme stocks and give priority to screening targets with matching valuations and performance. With the intensive disclosure of data in April, market fluctuations are inevitable. It will be a wise move to stay on the sidelines and combine objective data analysis.

四、均衡配置：风险评价与长期逻辑

IV. Balanced Allocation: Risk Assessment and Long - Term Logic

风险评价的核心

The Core of Risk Assessment

在高波动市场中，均衡配置至关重要。风险评价理论强调，投资回报与风险承受能力需匹配。热点板块如科技股短期涨幅可观，但波动性高，适合短线博弈者配置10% - 20%仓位。而低估值板块如银行、红利类资产波动较低，适合稳健投资者占比50%以上。历史数据显示，2018年贸易战后，A股普跌，高股息策略跑赢市场10个百分点，凸显防御价值。 In a highly volatile market, balanced allocation is crucial. Risk assessment theory emphasizes that investment returns should match the risk - bearing capacity. Hot - spot sectors such as technology stocks have considerable short - term gains but high volatility, and are suitable for short - term speculators to allocate 10% - 20% of their positions. Undervalued sectors such as banks and dividend - paying assets have lower volatility and are suitable for conservative investors to account for more than 50% of their positions. Historical data shows that after the trade war in 2018, the A - share market declined generally, and the high - dividend strategy outperformed the market by 10 percentage points, highlighting its defensive value.

长短结合的配置思路

Allocation Ideas Combining Short - and Long - Term Strategies

短线操作上，科技趋势未尽，可逢调整介入人形机器人或AI+龙头，但需设定止盈止损点，避免追高被套。长线布局上，高股息指数（如中证红利）与宽基指数（如沪深300）是优选，前者提供稳定现金流，后者捕捉市场整体增长。养老金等长期资金应避免高波动资产，聚焦规则明确的指数化投资。例如，美国标普500过去20年年化收益率约8%，依靠制度化规则穿越周期，A股类似策略可参考中证红利，20年收益率潜力可达10倍。 In short - term operations, the technology trend is not over yet. Investors can intervene in leading humanoid robot or AI+ stocks on pullbacks, but they need to set stop - profit and stop - loss points to avoid being trapped by chasing high prices. For long - term layout, high - dividend indices (such as the CSI Dividend Index) and broad - based indices (such as the CSI 300) are preferred. The former provides a stable cash flow, and the latter captures the overall market growth. Long - term funds such as pension funds should avoid high - volatility assets and focus on index - based investments with clear rules. For example, the S&P 500 in the United States has an average annual return of about 8% in the past 20 years, relying on institutionalized rules to navigate through market cycles. A similar strategy for A - shares can refer to the CSI Dividend Index, with the potential to achieve a 10 - fold return in 20 years.

时间的力量与大道至简

The Power of Time and the Simplicity of the Grand Principle

投资本质是赚时间的钱，而非博弈的钱。煤炭股如中国神华以6.2%股息率为例，若坚持持有20年，复利效应将带来可观回报，而无需频繁交易。反观热点板块，短期暴涨后往往一地鸡毛，2015年创业板牛市后回调70%，印证了博弈的风险。投资者应明确目标，短线仓位控制波动，长线仓位赚取增长，避免因急功近利而错失长期收益。 The essence of investment is to make money over time rather than through speculation. Take coal stocks like China Shenhua with a 6.2% dividend yield as an example. If an investor holds the stock for 20 years, the compound - interest effect will bring considerable returns without the need for frequent trading. In contrast, hot - spot sectors often end up in a mess after a short - term sharp rise. After the bull market in the ChiNext in 2015, it corrected by 70%, which confirms the risk of speculation. Investors should clarify their goals, use short - term positions to control volatility, and use long - term positions to earn growth, and avoid missing long - term returns due to short - sightedness.

结语：理性应对下半场，耐心收获未来

Conclusion: Respond Rationally to the Second Half and Patiently Reap the Future

2025年春季行情进入下半场，科技主线巨震揭示了市场的复杂性。热点板块趋势延续但泡沫累积，低估值资产崭露头角，恒生科技面临增量资金考验，财报季将重塑市场格局。投资者需摒弃盲从，以风险评价为基石，均衡配置短线机会与长线逻辑。 In 2025, the spring market has entered the second half. The severe shock of the technology mainline has revealed the complexity of the market. The trend of hot - spot sectors continues, but bubbles are accumulating. Undervalued assets are emerging. The Hang Seng Tech Index is facing the test of incremental capital. The earnings season will reshape the market pattern. Investors need to abandon blind following, take risk assessment as the foundation, and achieve a balanced allocation of short - term opportunities and long - term logic.

正如经济周期循环往复，投资成功源于理性与耐心。在3400点后的动荡中，顺势而为、守住初心，方能在二季度乃至更远的未来立于不败之地。 Just as the economic cycle goes round and round, investment success stems from rationality and patience. In the turmoil after the 3,400 - point level, only by following the trend and staying true to the original intention can investors stand firm in the second quarter and even in the more distant future.