科技主线巨震下的选择

Choices Amid the Tremors of the Tech Mainstream

随着2025年一季度的结束，春季行情进入下半场，资本市场也迎来新的转折点。科技板块经历显著调整，投资者面临抉择：是继续追逐热点，还是转向低估值资产？ As the first quarter of 2025 comes to an end, the spring market enters its second half, and the capital market ushers in a new turning point. The technology sector has undergone significant adjustments, leaving investors with a dilemma: should they continue to chase the hot spots or shift to undervalued assets?

本文基于吴小平在破竹的公开直播，主题为"科技主线巨震！二季度强势上攻的主线在哪？"的分析，围绕当下追热点还是布局低估值、恒生科技与恒生指数的强势能否延续、财报季的影响以及均衡配置的风险评价四个核心议题，深入剖析市场趋势，并结合案例与数据，展望二季度投资主线。 This article is based on Wu Xiaoping's public live - broadcast on Pozhu, with the theme of "Tremors in the Tech Mainstream! Where is the Main Line for a Strong Uptrend in the Second Quarter?" It delves deep into the market trends around four core issues: whether to chase hot spots or allocate to undervalued assets at present, whether the strength of the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index can continue, the impact of the earnings season, and the risk assessment of balanced allocation. It also combines cases and data to forecast the investment main line for the second quarter.

本内容基于公开资料，仅供参考，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 This content is based on public information and is for reference only. The stock market is risky, and investment should be made with caution.

更多金融财经知识学习，欢迎关注破竹，紧跟每日市场变化。 For more learning of financial and economic knowledge, welcome to follow Pozhu and keep up with the daily market changes.

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直播回看地址：https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67e0bcdbe4b0694c5ab05c1a/4 Live - broadcast replay address: https://pc.pozhu.com/detail/l_67e0bcdbe4b0694c5ab05c1a/4

一、当下选择：追逐热点还是布局低估值？

I. Current Choices: Chasing Hot Spots or Allocating to Undervalued Assets?

市场热点现状与趋势延续性

Current Situation of Market Hot Spots and Continuity of Trends

2025年一季度，科技相关主题成为市场焦点，主要热点包括人形机器人、AI+（人工智能叠加概念）以及恒生科技指数。其中，人形机器人板块因想象空间巨大而受到追捧，但炒作已扩散至数百家上市公司，甚至部分企业发布澄清公告，表明与该业务无关，显示投机氛围浓厚。 In the first quarter of 2025, technology - related themes became the focus of the market. The main hot spots included humanoid robots, AI+ (the concept of artificial intelligence overlay), and the Hang Seng Tech Index. Among them, the humanoid robot sector was highly sought after due to its huge imagination space. However, the speculation has spread to hundreds of listed companies, and some enterprises even issued clarification announcements stating that they have nothing to do with this business, indicating a strong speculative atmosphere.

AI+概念虽依托全球科技巨头如英伟达的支撑，但近期股价回调反映市场情绪趋于理性。恒生科技指数则受益于南下资金净流入，涨幅显著，例如某社交巨头从低估状态修复至合理估值，与美国同类公司Meta相当。 Although the AI+ concept is supported by global technology giants such as NVIDIA, the recent stock price correction reflects that the market sentiment is becoming more rational. The Hang Seng Tech Index has benefited from the net inflow of south - bound funds and has seen significant gains. For example, a social media giant has restored its valuation from an undervalued state to a reasonable one, comparable to its US peer Meta.

趋势是否延续是投资者关注的重点。首先要明确，趋势具有惯性，因此通常来说，顺势而为往往比逆势抄底胜率更高。以人形机器人为例，尽管部分个股估值偏高，但板块共识深入人心，公募基金抱团效应显现，短期内仍有上涨动能。 Whether the trends will continue is the key concern of investors. First of all, it should be clear that trends have inertia. Therefore, generally speaking, following the trend often has a higher winning rate than bottom - fishing against the trend. Taking humanoid robots as an example, although the valuations of some individual stocks are relatively high, the consensus on the sector is deeply rooted, and the effect of public funds' clustering is evident. There is still upward momentum in the short term.

但也要注意，过高的成交量和扩散性炒作预示着风险积累，类似历史上的新能源热潮，最终或以"一地鸡毛"收场。 However, it should also be noted that excessive trading volume and widespread speculation indicate the accumulation of risks, similar to the new - energy boom in history, which may ultimately end in a mess.

恒生科技则依赖增量资金推动，需要关注南下资金的流向，若南下资金减弱，这场游戏可能就要中断。 The Hang Seng Tech Index depends on incremental funds. It is necessary to pay attention to the flow of south - bound funds. If the south - bound funds weaken, this "game" may come to an end.

热点与低估值的投资逻辑对比

Comparison of Investment Logics between Hot Spots and Undervalued Assets

投资可分为博弈与长期持有两种逻辑。 Investment can be divided into two logics: gambling and long - term holding.

追逐热点本质是博弈，赚取对手盘的差价，适合短线交易者。例如，2021年新能源板块高位时，短线投资者通过高抛低吸获利颇丰，但长线持有者多被套山顶。 Chasing hot spots is essentially a form of gambling, aiming to profit from the price difference with counterparties. It is suitable for short - term traders. For example, when the new - energy sector reached its peak in 2021, short - term investors made substantial profits through high - selling and low - buying, while long - term holders were mostly trapped at the peak.

反之，低估值资产如银行、红利类板块，波动较小，适合追求稳定收益的投资者。以中国神华为例，其2025年最新分红方案显示年化股息率达6.2%，远超普通理财产品，且作为国企龙头具备低风险属性，堪称"现金奶牛"。 On the contrary, undervalued assets such as the banking and dividend - paying sectors have relatively small fluctuations and are suitable for investors seeking stable returns. Take China Shenhua as an example. Its latest dividend plan for 2025 shows an annualized dividend yield of 6.2%, far exceeding that of ordinary financial products. As a leading state - owned enterprise, it has low - risk characteristics and can be regarded as a "cash cow".

选择何种策略取决于投资目标。 The choice of strategy depends on investment goals.

若追求短期刺激，热点板块是优选，但需紧盯成交量与资金流向；若目标是养老金等长期收益，低估值资产更具确定性。 If investors seek short - term excitement, hot - spot sectors are the preferred choice, but they need to closely monitor trading volume and fund flows. If the goal is long - term returns such as pension funds, undervalued assets are more certain.

已经有成熟的数据可以佐证这一观点：过去十年，沪深300指数年化收益率约7%，而高波动科技板块如科创50在牛市可达30%以上，但在熊市回撤同样剧烈。 There is already mature data to support this view: In the past decade, the annualized return of the CSI 300 Index was about 7%, while the highly volatile technology sector such as the STAR 50 Index could reach over 30% in a bull market, but also had a sharp correction in a bear market.

决策建议

Decision - making Suggestions

二季度初，科技热点仍具惯性，但需警惕泡沫化风险。投资者可保留部分热点仓位，顺势操作，同时逢回调逐步布局低估值板块，兼顾短期收益与长期安全垫。 At the beginning of the second quarter, technology hot spots still have inertia, but investors need to be vigilant against the risk of asset bubbles. Investors can keep some positions in hot - spot sectors and follow the trend. At the same time, they can gradually allocate to undervalued sectors during pullbacks, taking into account both short - term returns and long - term safety cushions.

二、恒生科技与恒生指数：强势能否延续？

II. Can the Strength of the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index Continue?

AH溢价视角下的估值分析

Valuation Analysis from the Perspective of AH Premium

恒生科技与恒生指数近期表现强势，源于南下资金推动。以AH溢价指数（A股与H股价差）为参考，过去五年数据显示，港股相对A股的便宜程度已缩减至低点。例如，A股通常比H股贵40% - 50%，但截至2025年3月，溢价率降至约30%，反映港股短期涨势过快。然而，拉长至十年维度，港股仍具低估优势，尤其是央企股，部分市值不及净资产，堪称"国有资产贱卖"。 The recent strong performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index is driven by south - bound funds. Taking the AH Premium Index (the price difference between A - shares and H - shares) as a reference, data from the past five years show that the relative cheapness of H - shares compared to A - shares has shrunk to a low point. For example, A - shares are usually 40% - 50% more expensive than H - shares, but as of March 2025, the premium rate has dropped to about 30%, indicating that H - shares have risen too rapidly in the short term. However, in a ten - year perspective, H - shares still have an undervaluation advantage, especially central - state - owned enterprise stocks. Some of them have a market value lower than their net assets, which can be regarded as "undervaluing state - owned assets".

以某社交巨头为例，其估值从低估修复至与Meta相当，上涨50%后失去明显低估优势。恒生科技整体估值亦从低位抬升至合理区间，若继续上涨需依赖泡沫化驱动，而非基本面支撑。 Taking a social media giant as an example, its valuation has been restored from an undervalued state to be comparable to Meta. After a 50% increase, it has lost its obvious undervaluation advantage. The overall valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index has also risen from a low level to a reasonable range. If it continues to rise, it will need to be driven by asset bubbles rather than fundamental support.

增量资金的关键作用

The Key Role of Incremental Funds

恒生市场的强势本质是增量行情，南下资金日均净流入80亿至200亿不等，远超A股存量资金腾挪的格局。A股一季度表现为资金从沪深300、上证50流向中证1000、中证2000，科技与成长板块受益，但整体无新增资金入场。港股则不同，若增量资金持续，其强势可延续；若资金流出或缩量，调整压力将显现。 The strength of the Hang Seng market is essentially an incremental market. The daily net inflow of south - bound funds ranges from 8 billion to 20 billion yuan, far exceeding the pattern of capital reallocation in the A - share market. In the first quarter of the A - share market, funds flowed from the CSI 300 and SSE 50 to the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, benefiting the technology and growth sectors, but there was no overall new capital inflow. In the H - share market, if the incremental funds continue, its strength can be maintained; if there is a capital outflow or a reduction in capital inflow, adjustment pressure will emerge.

案例分析可参考2021年港股反弹行情，当时南下资金推动恒生指数上涨约30%，但后续资金动能不足，指数震荡回落。当前恒生科技成交量高企，需密切关注南下资金动态。 For a case analysis, we can refer to the rebound of the H - share market in 2021. At that time, south - bound funds pushed the Hang Seng Index up by about 30%, but the subsequent lack of capital momentum led to an oscillating decline of the index. Currently, the trading volume of the Hang Seng Tech Index is high, and it is necessary to closely monitor the dynamics of south - bound funds.

二季度展望

Outlook for the Second Quarter

短期看，恒生科技与恒生指数因涨势过急存在调整需求，但长期仍具低估优势。投资者可根据持有周期决策：短线者关注资金流向，适时止盈；长线者可继续持有，等待价值回归。 In the short term, the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index need to be adjusted due to their rapid rise, but they still have an undervaluation advantage in the long term. Investors can make decisions based on their holding periods: short - term investors should pay attention to fund flows and take profits in a timely manner; long - term investors can continue to hold and wait for the value to return.

三、财报季的影响：预期与现实的碰撞

III. Impact of the Earnings Season: The Collision between Expectations and Reality

年报与一季报的重要性

Importance of Annual Reports and First - Quarter Reports

四月是上市公司年报与一季报集中披露期，市场从炒作预期转向验证现实。以人形机器人为例，其炒作依赖想象力而非业绩支撑，若财报显示多数企业盈利未兑现，板块或面临调整风险。反之，低估值板块如银行、红利股，因业绩稳定且分红可观，可能吸引资金回流。 April is the period when listed companies intensively disclose their annual reports and first - quarter reports. The market shifts from speculating on expectations to verifying reality. Taking humanoid robots as an example, the speculation on this sector relies on imagination rather than performance support. If the earnings reports show that most enterprises have not realized their profits, the sector may face adjustment risks. On the contrary, undervalued sectors such as banks and dividend - paying stocks may attract capital back due to their stable performance and considerable dividends.

2024年9月底以来，政策转向刺激市场上涨，半年过去，财报数据将检验经济复苏成效。例如，消费板块若持续低迷，可能进一步失去吸引力，而科技板块若业绩超预期，则有望延续强势。 Since the end of September 2024, policy changes have stimulated the market to rise. After half a year, the earnings report data will test the effectiveness of economic recovery. For example, if the consumer sector remains sluggish, it may become less attractive, while if the technology sector's performance exceeds expectations, it is expected to maintain its strength.

历史案例启示

Lessons from Historical Cases

历史经验表明，财报季往往引发市场分化。2015年创业板牛市中，部分科技公司因业绩不及预期而暴跌，板块整体回调超20%；而2020年疫情后，医药板块因业绩兑现而持续走强。二季度，投资者需关注财报中的盈利增长、现金流及分红政策等核心指标。 Historical experience shows that the earnings season often leads to market differentiation. During the bull market of the ChiNext in 2015, some technology companies tumbled due to their under - expected performance, and the overall sector corrected by more than 20%. After the pandemic in 2020, the pharmaceutical sector continued to strengthen due to the realization of performance. In the second quarter, investors need to pay attention to core indicators such as profit growth, cash flow, and dividend policies in the earnings reports.

配置策略

Allocation Strategies

财报季前，建议观望为主，避免盲目追高。待数据明朗后，优先配置业绩确定性高的板块，如红利类资产，同时关注科技板块中业绩兑现的龙头企业。 Before the earnings season, it is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and avoid blindly chasing high prices. After the data becomes clear, give priority to allocating to sectors with high - certainty performance, such as dividend - paying assets, and at the same time, pay attention to leading enterprises in the technology sector that have realized their performance.

四、均衡配置与风险评价

IV. Balanced Allocation and Risk Assessment

风险评价的核心理念

Core Concept of Risk Assessment

投资需平衡收益与风险，风险评价是关键工具。对于高波动热点，如人形机器人、恒生科技，追逐者需评估潜在回撤。以科创50为例，其估值高于美国同类科技指数，若无增量资金支撑，可能回调20% - 30%。低估值资产如银行股，尽管短期涨幅有限，但回撤幅度通常控制在10%以内，适合稳健投资者。 Investment requires a balance between returns and risks, and risk assessment is a key tool. For high - volatility hot spots such as humanoid robots and the Hang Seng Tech Index, those who chase them need to evaluate potential pullbacks. Taking the STAR 50 Index as an example, its valuation is higher than that of similar US technology indices. Without the support of incremental funds, it may correct by 20% - 30%. Undervalued assets such as bank stocks, although having limited short - term gains, usually have a pullback amplitude controlled within 10%, making them suitable for conservative investors.

分散投资的实践

Practice of Diversified Investment

分散是降低风险的有效手段。以巴菲特为例，其持仓虽集中于能力圈内，但涵盖金融、消费、科技等多个领域，避免单一行业风险。普通投资者可通过指数基金实现分散，例如沪深300覆盖大盘蓝筹，中证500聚焦中小成长，中证红利锁定高股息资产。 Diversification is an effective way to reduce risks. Taking Warren Buffett as an example, although his holdings are concentrated within his circle of competence, they cover multiple fields such as finance, consumption, and technology, avoiding the risks of a single industry. Ordinary investors can achieve diversification through index funds. For example, the CSI 300 covers large - cap blue - chip stocks, the CSI 500 focuses on small - and medium - cap growth stocks, and the CSI Dividend Index targets high - dividend - paying assets.

案例分析显示，2022年单一持有新能源的投资者普遍亏损超40%，而均衡配置沪深300与红利指数的投资者收益率仅微跌5%，凸显分散的重要性。 Case analysis shows that in 2022, investors who solely held new - energy stocks generally suffered losses of more than 40%, while investors who evenly allocated between the CSI 300 and the Dividend Index only had a slight decline of 5% in their returns, highlighting the importance of diversification.

长短结合的仓位规划

Portfolio Planning Combining Short - and Long - Term Positions

二季度建议长短结合：短期仓位（20% - 30%）参与科技热点，捕捉趋势机会；长期仓位（70% - 80%）布局低估值资产，赚取时间价值。例如，中国神华6.2%的股息率叠加潜在煤价反弹，长期收益可观；恒生科技则适合短线波段操作。 In the second quarter, it is recommended to combine short - and long - term positions: Allocate 20% - 30% of the portfolio to participate in technology hot spots and capture trend opportunities; allocate 70% - 80% to undervalued assets to earn the time value. For example, with China Shenhua's 6.2% dividend yield and the potential rebound in coal prices, long - term returns can be considerable; the Hang Seng Tech Index is suitable for short - term trading.

五、划重点：二季度主线展望与投资建议

V. Key Points: Outlook for the Main Line in the Second Quarter and Investment Suggestions

主线趋势预测

Forecast of the Main Line Trend

春季行情进入下半场，科技主线虽有调整压力，但趋势惯性仍存，二季度或以震荡上行为主。低估值板块如银行、红利资产有望逐步发力，尤其在财报季后，若经济复苏数据向好，大盘蓝筹可能带动上证指数冲击3600点。恒生科技则需视资金面而定，若南下资金持续流入，仍具上攻潜力。 As the spring market enters its second half, although the technology main line faces adjustment pressure, the inertia of the trend still exists. In the second quarter, it may mainly show an oscillating upward trend. Undervalued sectors such as banks and dividend - paying assets are expected to gradually gain momentum. Especially after the earnings season, if the economic recovery data is positive, large - cap blue - chip stocks may drive the Shanghai Composite Index to reach 3,600 points. The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index depends on the capital situation. If the south - bound funds continue to flow in, it still has the potential to rise.

投资建议

Investment Suggestions

科技板块：保留部分仓位，顺势操作，逢高减仓，警惕泡沫化风险。
Technology Sector: Keep some positions, follow the trend, reduce positions when the price is high, and be vigilant against the risk of asset bubbles.
低估值资产：逐步加仓银行、红利类指数，锁定长期收益。
Undervalued Assets: Gradually increase positions in banking and dividend - paying indices to lock in long - term returns.
恒生市场：短线关注成交量与资金流向，长线持有低估央企股。
Hang Seng Market: Short - term investors should pay attention to trading volume and fund flows, while long - term investors can hold undervalued central - state - owned enterprise stocks.
财报季策略：观望为主，优先配置业绩超预期标的。
Earnings Season Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach mainly and give priority to allocating to targets with performance exceeding expectations.

2025年二季度，资本市场既有科技热点的激情，又有低估值资产的稳健。 In the second quarter of 2025, the capital market combines the excitement of technology hot spots and the stability of undervalued assets.

投资前应当明确自身目标，平衡博弈与长期逻辑，通过风险评价与均衡配置，在巨震中寻找机遇。正如自然界的潮起潮落，市场周期不可逆转，顺势而为、稳中求进，方能在时间的复利中实现财富增长。 Before investing, investors should clarify their own goals, balance the gambling and long - term logics, and seek opportunities in the midst of major tremors through risk assessment and balanced allocation. Just as the tides ebb and flow in nature, market cycles are irreversible. Only by following the trend and making steady progress can investors achieve wealth growth through the power of compound interest over time.