特朗普新政将如何颠覆你的钱袋子？

How Will Trump's New Policies Upend Your Wallet?

2025年3月28日，正值第一季度末尾，全球经济与金融市场正迎来一场深刻的变革。 On March 28, 2025, at the end of the first quarter, the global economy and financial markets are undergoing a profound transformation.

特朗普第二任期即将于4月2日启动的全球关税政策，不仅是对二战以来多边贸易体系的重大挑战，更可能成为影响未来数年资产配置的关键变量。与此同时，中国国内经济在第一季度表现平稳但乏力，政策空间的余量为第二季度提供了宽松预期。 The global tariff policy that is set to be launched on April 2 by Trump in his second term is not only a major challenge to the multilateral trading system since World War II, but also likely to be a key variable affecting asset allocation in the next few years. Meanwhile, the Chinese domestic economy showed stable but lackluster performance in the first quarter, and the remaining policy space provides an expectation of easing in the second quarter.

本文将围绕特朗普新政的底层逻辑及其对全球资产的影响、中国经济与政策应对，以及资产配置的方向性思考展开分析，旨在为投资者提供清晰的框架与洞见。 This article will analyze the underlying logic of Trump's new policies, their impact on global assets, China's economic and policy responses, and directional considerations for asset allocation, aiming to provide investors with a clear framework and insights.

本内容基于市场公开资料，个人整理后供参考，不具投资建议。 This content is based on publicly available market information, compiled for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 金融财经知识学习，欢迎关注破竹APP。 For learning financial and economic knowledge, welcome to follow the Pozhu APP. 财经大咖每天在线分享，专注树立财经思维。 Top financial experts share online every day, focusing on cultivating financial thinking.

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一、特朗普新政：百年未有之变局的开端

I. Trump's New Policies: The Beginning of an Unprecedented Change in a Century

特朗普第二任期的关税政策被视为对全球经济秩序的重塑，其核心在于4月2日起对全球征收同等关税。 Trump's tariff policy in his second term is regarded as a reshaping of the global economic order, with its core being the imposition of equal tariffs on the world starting from April 2.

这一举措标志着美国从多边贸易体制的主导者转向孤立主义的实践者，彻底否定战后以WTO为核心的自由贸易框架。自2018年特朗普首次对中国商品启动"301条款"以来，美国对多边体系的质疑已逐步显现，而此次全面关税政策则将冲击范围扩展至盟友及其他国家，堪称"百年未有之变局"的全面开花。 This move marks the United States' shift from the leader of the multilateral trading system to a practitioner of isolationism, completely negating the post - war free - trade framework centered around the WTO. Since Trump first initiated the "Section 301" against Chinese goods in 2018, the United States' doubts about the multilateral system have gradually emerged. This comprehensive tariff policy extends the scope of impact to allies and other countries, which can be regarded as the full - blown manifestation of an "unprecedented change in a century".

1.1 新政的底层逻辑与全球影响

1.1 The Underlying Logic and Global Impact of the New Policies

特朗普新政的逻辑根植于美国内部的经济与政治需求。自战后主导多边贸易体系以来，美国凭借美元霸权与制造业优势获益匪浅。然而，随着全球化深入，中国等新兴经济体的崛起削弱了美国的相对优势。特朗普认为，多边贸易让美国"吃亏"，尤其是在制造业外流与贸易逆差加剧的背景下。因此，他试图通过高关税重塑全球供应链，迫使企业回流美国本土，同时削弱竞争对手的经济实力。 The logic of Trump's new policies is rooted in the internal economic and political needs of the United States. Since leading the multilateral trading system after World War II, the United States has benefited greatly from the US dollar hegemony and manufacturing advantages. However, with the deepening of globalization, the rise of emerging economies such as China has weakened the relative advantages of the United States. Trump believes that multilateral trade has made the United States "suffer", especially against the backdrop of the outflow of manufacturing and the increasing trade deficit. Therefore, he tries to reshape the global supply chain through high tariffs, force enterprises to return to the US mainland, and at the same time weaken the economic strength of competitors.

这一政策对全球经济的潜在影响深远。首先，关税壁垒将打断现有贸易格局，可能导致全球供应链的区域化甚至碎片化。例如，加拿大此前对中国商品征收100%关税的"投名状"行为，预示着部分国家可能追随美国，或采取对等报复。其次，全球经济增长的不确定性将加剧。国际货币基金组织（IMF）2024年预测，全球贸易量若因关税战萎缩10%，将拖累全球GDP增长0.5个百分点。此外，金融市场可能因避险情绪升温而波动加剧，美元、美债与黄金等资产将面临新的定价逻辑。 This policy has far - reaching potential impacts on the global economy. First, tariff barriers will disrupt the existing trade pattern and may lead to the regionalization or even fragmentation of the global supply chain. For example, Canada's previous act of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods as a "token of loyalty" indicates that some countries may follow the United States or take reciprocal retaliatory measures. Second, the uncertainty of global economic growth will increase. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted in 2024 that if global trade volume shrinks by 10% due to a tariff war, it will drag down global GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points. In addition, financial markets may experience more volatility due to the rising risk - aversion sentiment, and assets such as the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and gold will face a new pricing logic.

1.2 对中国的影响：有限但需警惕

1.2 Impact on China: Limited but Worth Vigilance

对于中国而言，特朗普新政的直接影响相对可控。目前，中美贸易关税已高达40%，若进一步提升至60%，边际冲击将小于2018年首次加征关税时的剧烈反应。中国外贸近年来展现出韧性，2024年出口额仍同比增长约5%，显示出多元化市场的适应能力。此外，中国政府在2025年中国发展论坛上明确表示，拥有"更多的政策储备"以应对外部冲击，预示着针对性措施已在酝酿。 For China, the direct impact of Trump's new policies is relatively controllable. Currently, the Sino - US trade tariff has reached as high as 40%. If it is further raised to 60%, the marginal impact will be smaller than the sharp reaction when tariffs were first imposed in 2018. China's foreign trade has shown resilience in recent years, with the export volume still increasing by about 5% year - on - year in 2024, indicating its ability to adapt to diversified markets. In addition, the Chinese government clearly stated at the 2025 China Development Forum that it has "more policy reserves" to deal with external shocks, indicating that targeted measures are in the pipeline.

然而，潜在风险不容忽视。若其他经济体效仿美国，集体架空WTO规则并取消对中国的最惠国待遇，全球贸易环境将进一步恶化。二战前"以邻为壑"的孤立主义曾导致经济萧条与地缘冲突的历史教训，提醒我们需对这一变局保持高度警惕。 However, potential risks should not be ignored. If other economies follow the example of the United States, collectively bypass the WTO rules, and cancel the most - favored - nation treatment for China, the global trade environment will further deteriorate. The historical lesson that the "beggar - thy - neighbor" isolationism before World War II led to economic depression and geopolitical conflicts reminds us to be highly vigilant about this change.

二、中国经济与政策：第一季度的回顾与第二季度的展望

II. China's Economy and Policies: A Review of the First Quarter and a Prospect for the Second Quarter

2025年第一季度，中国经济数据表现平稳但未见亮点。工业增加值、消费增速、投资增速及出口增速较去年同期均有所回落，显示出稳增长的压力。全年GDP目标若维持5%，第二季度政策宽松将成为必然选择。 In the first quarter of 2025, China's economic data showed stable but unremarkable performance. The growth rates of industrial added value, consumption, investment, and exports all declined compared with the same period last year, indicating the pressure to stabilize growth. If the annual GDP target remains at 5%, policy easing in the second quarter will be an inevitable choice.

2.1 第一季度经济：压力与韧性并存

2.1 The Economy in the First Quarter: Coexistence of Pressure and Resilience

从数据看，1 - 2月工业增加值增速回落至5.5%左右，低于去年同期6.8%的水平；社会消费品零售总额增速放缓至4%，反映出居民消费意愿不足；出口虽保持正增长，但增速较2024年同期下降约1个百分点。 According to the data, the growth rate of industrial added value from January to February dropped to around 5.5%, lower than the 6.8% in the same period last year; the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down to 4%, reflecting the lack of residents' consumption willingness; although exports maintained positive growth, the growth rate decreased by about 1 percentage point compared with the same period in 2024.

这些数据表明，外部需求疲软与内部信心不足叠加，经济复苏动能仍需政策助力。 These data indicate that the weak external demand and insufficient internal confidence are combined, and the economic recovery momentum still needs policy support.

尽管如此，韧性依然存在。制造业PMI连续三个月保持在50以上，显示出生产端的稳定性。此外，地方政府债务虽存隐忧，但中央通过低息债置换高息债的举措缓解了部分压力。相较于欧美日等经济体，中国债务水平仍具安全边际，财政赤字率突破3%的"马斯特里赫条约"约束也为后续发力提供了空间。 Nevertheless, resilience still exists. The manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 for three consecutive months, indicating the stability of the production side. In addition, although there are concerns about local government debts, the central government has alleviated some of the pressure through the measure of replacing high - interest debts with low - interest debts. Compared with economies such as those in Europe, the United States, and Japan, China's debt level still has a safety margin, and the fact that the fiscal deficit rate has exceeded the 3% limit of the "Maastricht Treaty" also provides room for subsequent efforts.

2.2 第二季度政策：宽松基调与对冲工具

2.2 Policies in the Second Quarter: A Loose Tone and Hedging Tools

展望第二季度，政策宽松将成为主线。中国高层在近期论坛上明确，政策工具箱中仍有余量，以应对外部冲击。这一表态与特朗普关税政策的时间窗口高度吻合。若4月中美会谈未果，外部环境恶化，政策力度可能进一步加码。 Looking forward to the second quarter, policy easing will be the main theme. Chinese senior officials made it clear at a recent forum that there is still room in the policy toolbox to deal with external shocks. This statement is highly consistent with the time window of Trump's tariff policy. If the Sino - US talks in April yield no results and the external environment deteriorates, the policy intensity may be further increased.

财政政策方面，赤字率提升与专项债扩容将是重点。2024年地方债置换已初见成效，2025年或进一步扩大规模，以支持基建与消费。货币政策则更趋谨慎，尽管降息呼声不断，但受制于美联储节奏放缓与汇率压力，降准与定向宽松可能优先于全面降息。这些工具旨在对冲外部不确定性，提升市场信心，为资产市场提供支撑。 In terms of fiscal policy, increasing the deficit rate and expanding the scale of special bonds will be the focus. The replacement of local government debts in 2024 has achieved initial results, and the scale may be further expanded in 2025 to support infrastructure construction and consumption. Monetary policy will be more cautious. Although there are continuous calls for interest rate cuts, due to the slowdown of the Fed's pace and exchange - rate pressure, reserve requirement ratio cuts and targeted easing may take precedence over comprehensive interest rate cuts. These tools aim to hedge against external uncertainties, boost market confidence, and provide support for the asset market.

三、资产配置的方向性思考

III. Directional Considerations for Asset Allocation

特朗普新政与中国政策应对的交织，为2025年第二季度的资产配置带来了机遇与挑战。基于上述分析，以下从全球资产与中国市场两个维度展开探讨。 The interaction between Trump's new policies and China's policy responses brings opportunities and challenges for asset allocation in the second quarter of 2025. Based on the above analysis, the following discussion will be carried out from two dimensions: global assets and the Chinese market.

3.1 全球资产：黄金崛起与美元震荡

3.1 Global Assets: The Rise of Gold and the Fluctuation of the US Dollar

特朗普新政的不确定性推升了避险需求，黄金成为焦点。2025年初，黄金价格已突破3000美元/盎司，并在3月逼近3050美元，创历史新高。这一涨势与新政逻辑密切相关：关税战可能削弱美元信用，全球货币体系动荡推高了黄金的保值属性。展望第二季度，若关税政策落地，黄金顺势调整后仍具上行空间，建议投资者在回调时布局。 The uncertainty of Trump's new policies has increased the demand for hedging, and gold has become the focus. At the beginning of 2025, the gold price had exceeded $3,000 per ounce and approached $3,050 in March, reaching a record high. This upward trend is closely related to the logic of the new policies: the tariff war may weaken the credit of the US dollar, and the turmoil in the global monetary system has enhanced the value - preservation property of gold. Looking forward to the second quarter, if the tariff policy is implemented, gold still has room for upward movement after a proper adjustment. It is recommended that investors make arrangements during the correction.

美元与美债则更趋震荡。新政初期，美元可能因避险情绪短暂走强，但长期看，贸易战损及美国经济基本面，美元指数或在100 - 105区间波动。美债收益率自2024年底攀升后，2025年可能因经济放缓预期而承压，10年期美债收益率或回落至3.5% - 4%区间。 The US dollar and US Treasury bonds will be more volatile. In the early stage of the new policies, the US dollar may strengthen briefly due to risk - aversion sentiment. However, in the long run, the trade war will damage the US economic fundamentals, and the US dollar index may fluctuate in the range of 100 - 105. After the yield of US Treasury bonds climbed since the end of 2024, it may face pressure in 2025 due to the expectation of economic slowdown, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds may fall back to the range of 3.5% - 4%.

3.2 中国市场：港股领跑与A股轮动

3.2 The Chinese Market: Hong Kong Stocks Leading and A - shares Rotating

在中国市场，港股表现尤为亮眼。2025年初，恒生科技指数ETF创下新高，互联网巨头与新能源车企成为领涨主力。这一现象与特朗普新政的外部压力形成呼应：国际资本因避险需求转向中国资产，港股因估值洼地与政策支持获青睐。相比之下，A股春季行情表现平淡，除人形机器人与AI板块外，整体涨幅有限。然而，政策宽松预期与外部资金流入，或为A股第二季度带来轮动机会。 In the Chinese market, Hong Kong stocks have performed particularly well. At the beginning of 2025, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF reached a new high, and internet giants and new - energy vehicle manufacturers became the leading forces in the rally. This phenomenon echoes the external pressure of Trump's new policies: international capital has turned to Chinese assets due to the demand for hedging, and Hong Kong stocks have been favored because of their undervalued status and policy support. In contrast, the spring market of A - shares has been dull, with limited overall gains except for the humanoid robot and AI sectors. However, the expectation of policy easing and the inflow of external funds may bring rotation opportunities to A - shares in the second quarter.

具体而言，医药与化工等低位板块可能在整理后反弹，而科技板块在年报披露后或面临分化。指数层面，上证指数与创业板指当前处于日线背离后的整理期，5 - 6月在政策催化下有望突破震荡区间。投资者可关注指数基金（如沪深300ETF）与优质行业ETF，把握趋势性机会。 Specifically, low - level sectors such as medicine and chemicals may rebound after consolidation, while the technology sector may face differentiation after the disclosure of annual reports. At the index level, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently in the consolidation period after daily - line divergence, and are expected to break through the oscillation range with policy catalysis from May to June. Investors can pay attention to index funds (such as the CSI 300 ETF) and high - quality industry ETFs to seize trend - following opportunities.

3.3 配置原则：方向重于交易

3.3 Allocation Principle: Direction is More Important than Trading

在资产配置中，方向性判断至关重要。历史经验表明，牛市中趋势投资者往往收益更稳，而震荡市中高频交易虽有回报，却难以跑赢量化策略。以2007年港股涡轮热为例，部分投资者从50万本金做到7000万，却在2008年暴跌中回吐至数十万，凸显趋势判断优于短期博弈的价值。当前，特朗普新政带来的大趋势或持续数年，投资者应以安全性为先，收益性次之，优先配置具备基本面支撑的资产。 In asset allocation, directional judgment is crucial. Historical experience shows that trend investors tend to have more stable returns in a bull market, while in a volatile market, although high - frequency trading can bring returns, it is difficult to outperform quantitative strategies. Taking the Hong Kong stock warrant frenzy in 2007 as an example, some investors increased their principal from 500,000 to 70 million, but gave back most of the gains to hundreds of thousands during the sharp decline in 2008, highlighting the value of trend judgment over short - term speculation. Currently, the major trend brought about by Trump's new policies may last for several years. Investors should prioritize safety over profitability and preferentially allocate assets with fundamental support.

四、结语：审慎应对，把握机遇

IV. Conclusion: Respond Prudently and Seize Opportunities

2025年第二季度，全球经济与金融市场将在特朗普新政的冲击下进入多事之秋。中国经济虽面临压力，但政策余量为其提供了缓冲空间。在这一背景下，资产配置需兼顾灵活性与审慎性：黄金作为避险资产值得关注，港股与A股在轮动中孕育机会，美元与美债则需动态观察。 In the second quarter of 2025, the global economy and financial markets will enter a troubled period under the impact of Trump's new policies. Although the Chinese economy faces pressure, the remaining policy space provides a buffer. Against this background, asset allocation needs to balance flexibility and prudence: gold, as a hedging asset, is worth attention; Hong Kong stocks and A - shares may bring opportunities in rotation; and the US dollar and US Treasury bonds need to be observed dynamically.

正如古人云，"凡事预则立，不预则废"。面对百年未有之变局，投资者唯有洞悉底层逻辑，方能在动荡中找到立足之地。未来数年，无论是短期的市场波动，还是长期的体系重塑，都将考验我们的智慧与定力。唯有顺势而为，方能在这场变局中实现财富的稳健增长。 As an ancient saying goes, "If you plan ahead, you will succeed; if you don't, you will fail." Facing an unprecedented change in a century, only by understanding the underlying logic can investors find a foothold in the turmoil. In the next few years, both short - term market fluctuations and long - term system reshaping will test our wisdom and perseverance. Only by acting in accordance with the trend can we achieve stable wealth growth in this change.