科技股调整：短期波动还是趋势终结？

Tech Stock Adjustment: Short-term Volatility or Trend Reversal?

引言

Introduction

2025年初，全球资本市场风云变幻，尤其是科技股板块的剧烈调整引发广泛关注。A股与港股的科技股在经历一轮显著上涨后，近期出现回调，而美股科技股则面临泡沫破裂的风险。这一现象不禁令人疑问：科技股的调整究竟是短期获利回吐，还是牛市行情的终结？

At the beginning of 2025, the global capital market underwent significant changes, with the sharp adjustment in the tech stock sector drawing widespread attention. After experiencing a significant rally, A-shares and Hong Kong tech stocks have recently shown pullbacks, while US tech stocks face the risk of bubble bursting. This phenomenon raises the question: Is the tech stock adjustment merely a short-term profit-taking or the end of the bull market?

本文围绕科技股牛市背后的逻辑、东升西落现象的持续性、板块轮动规律以及下一阶段布局策略展开分析。通过深度挖掘关键信息，结合案例与数据，旨在为读者提供清晰的投资视角与理性判断依据。

This article analyzes the logic behind the tech stock bull market, the sustainability of the East rising while West declining phenomenon, sector rotation patterns, and next-stage layout strategies. Through in-depth analysis of key information, combined with cases and data, it aims to provide readers with clear investment perspectives and rational judgment basis.

本内容基于前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙，在破竹公开直播内容进行二次总结，仅供参考，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。

This content is based on a secondary summary of the public live broadcast by Yang Delong, Chief Economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, for reference only. Stock market investment carries risks, please invest with caution.

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一、本轮科技牛市行情的驱动逻辑

I. Driving Logic Behind This Round of Tech Bull Market

1.1 全球资本再平衡与估值洼地效应

1.1 Global Capital Rebalancing and Valuation Depression Effect

科技股牛市的兴起，与全球资本流动的再平衡密切相关。过去数年，美股科技股持续创新高，纳斯达克指数市盈率一度突破40倍，英伟达市值甚至逼近3万亿美元。然而，高估值伴随高风险，2025年初，美国政策不确定性加剧，尤其是特朗普二次上台后推行的高关税政策，导致资本外流迹象明显。与此同时，A股与港股科技股在经历了三年低谷后，估值跌至历史底部，成为全球资本的"洼地"。以恒生科技指数为例，其代表性企业如阿里、腾讯的市盈率不足20倍，远低于美股同行。这种估值差吸引了大量资金流入，推动了科技股的上涨行情。

The rise of the tech stock bull market is closely related to the rebalancing of global capital flows. In recent years, US tech stocks have continuously hit new highs, with the NASDAQ index's P/E ratio once exceeding 40 times, and NVIDIA's market value approaching $3 trillion. However, high valuations come with high risks. At the beginning of 2025, US policy uncertainty increased, especially after Trump's second term began with high tariff policies, leading to obvious signs of capital outflow. Meanwhile, after three years of low points, A-shares and Hong Kong tech stocks' valuations fell to historical lows, becoming a "depression" for global capital. Taking the Hang Seng Tech Index as an example, its representative companies like Alibaba and Tencent have P/E ratios of less than 20 times, far lower than their US counterparts. This valuation gap attracted massive capital inflows, driving the tech stock rally.

案例分析显示，2024年9月中国政策转向后，A股成交量激增，日均突破1万亿人民币，显示出市场活跃度与资金参与度的双重提升。港股亦不例外，恒生科技指数年内创下新高，部分基金收益率高达60%-70%。这表明，资本逐利的本性与估值修复的需求，共同构成了科技牛市的基础。

Case analysis shows that after China's policy shift in September 2024, A-share trading volume surged, breaking through 1 trillion yuan daily, showing dual improvement in market activity and capital participation. Hong Kong stocks were no exception, with the Hang Seng Tech Index hitting new highs for the year, and some funds achieving returns of 60%-70%. This indicates that the nature of capital seeking profits and the need for valuation repair together formed the foundation of the tech bull market.

1.2 中国科技创新的崛起

1.2 The Rise of Chinese Technological Innovation

科技创新能力是本轮行情的另一核心驱动力。近年来，中国在人工智能、人形机器人等领域取得突破，尤其是在算力与制造端的优势逐步显现。以人形机器人为例，其发展得益于中国完整的产业链与高效的生产能力。据统计，国内某机器人企业能够在一天内完成从设计到样机的转化，这一速度在全球范围内无可匹敌。此外，中国"Deep Seek"大模型的问世，以仅相当于ChatGPT 1%的成本实现更高性能，不仅打破了美国在AI领域的垄断幻想，也提振了市场对中国科技前景的信心。

Technological innovation capability is another core driving force of this round of market movement. In recent years, China has made breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and other fields, with advantages gradually emerging in computing power and manufacturing. Taking humanoid robots as an example, their development benefits from China's complete industrial chain and efficient production capacity. According to statistics, a domestic robot company can complete the transformation from design to prototype in one day, a speed unmatched globally. Additionally, the launch of China's "Deep Seek" large model, achieving higher performance at only 1% of ChatGPT's cost, not only shattered the illusion of US monopoly in AI but also boosted market confidence in China's technological prospects.

数据进一步佐证了这一趋势。2024年，中国AI相关专利申请量占全球40%以上，显示出技术创新的强劲势头。这种从"制造大国"向"智造强国"的转型，为科技股提供了坚实的产业支撑，也为资本市场注入了长期增长的预期。

Data further confirms this trend. In 2024, China's AI-related patent applications accounted for over 40% of the global total, showing strong momentum in technological innovation. This transformation from a "manufacturing power" to an "intelligent manufacturing power" provides solid industrial support for tech stocks and injects long-term growth expectations into the capital market.

二、东升西落现象的持续性分析

II. Sustainability Analysis of East Rising While West Declining Phenomenon

2.1 美股科技股的泡沫风险

2.1 Bubble Risk in US Tech Stocks

东升西落的格局，在2025年尤为显著。美股科技股的调整源于多重因素叠加。首先，高估值泡沫已积累多年，巴菲特早在2024年便大幅减持苹果等科技股，其持有的现金规模达到3300亿美元，转而投资收益率超5%的美国国债。这一举动被视为对美股高估的预警。其次，特朗普的政策不确定性加剧了市场动荡。他上台后对欧盟、日韩、加拿大等多国加征关税，导致全球贸易摩擦升级，资本信心受挫。特斯拉股价在短短数月内腰斩，英伟达因"Deep Seek"的冲击估值回落，显示出美股科技股的脆弱性。

The pattern of East rising while West declining was particularly evident in 2025. The adjustment in US tech stocks stemmed from multiple overlapping factors. First, the high valuation bubble had accumulated over years, with Buffett significantly reducing his holdings in Apple and other tech stocks as early as 2024, holding cash of $330 billion and turning to US Treasury bonds with yields over 5%. This move was seen as a warning of US stock market overvaluation. Second, Trump's policy uncertainty intensified market turbulence. After taking office, he imposed high tariffs on the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and other countries, leading to escalating global trade friction and dampened capital confidence. Tesla's stock price halved in just a few months, and NVIDIA's valuation declined due to the impact of "Deep Seek", showing the fragility of US tech stocks.

统计数据显示，2025年初，纳斯达克指数较年初高点回落约15%，科技板块整体市值蒸发超2万亿美元。这种调整不仅是短期波动，更可能是长期趋势的开端。巴菲特过往五次大幅减仓美股后，市场均在半年内见顶回落，历史规律或再度应验。

Statistics show that at the beginning of 2025, the NASDAQ index fell about 15% from its early-year high, with the tech sector's total market value evaporating over $2 trillion. This adjustment is not just a short-term fluctuation but more likely the beginning of a long-term trend. After Buffett's five previous significant reductions in US stock holdings, the market peaked and declined within six months each time, and this historical pattern may repeat itself.

2.2 中国市场的相对韧性

2.2 Relative Resilience of the Chinese Market

相较之下，中国市场的科技股展现出较强的抗压能力。尽管特朗普加征关税对出口贸易构成一定影响，但中国凭借完整的产业链与14亿人口的内需市场，具备显著的缓冲空间。一带一路沿线国家的需求增长，也为过剩产能提供了出口。此外，自2024年9月起，中国政府密集出台支持性政策，避免了类似教培、房地产等行业的紧缩措施，增强了资本信心。两会设定的5% GDP增长目标与2%的CPI目标，进一步明确了经济稳定的方向。

In contrast, Chinese market tech stocks have shown stronger resilience. Although Trump's tariff increases have affected export trade, China's complete industrial chain and domestic market of 1.4 billion people provide significant buffer space. The growing demand from countries along the Belt and Road also provides an outlet for excess capacity. Additionally, since September 2024, the Chinese government has introduced intensive supportive policies, avoiding tightening measures in industries like education and real estate, strengthening capital confidence. The Two Sessions set GDP growth target of 5% and CPI target of 2%, further clarifying the direction of economic stability.

从资金流向看，A股与港股的低估值吸引了全球投资者的目光。香港汇丰银行举办的全球投资论坛上，多国投资者表示，中国科技股估值仅为美股的1/3至1/4，未来甚至可能实现估值溢价。这一趋势表明，东升西落的格局并非昙花一现，而是全球资本重新配置的结果。

From the perspective of capital flows, the low valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have attracted global investors' attention. At the global investment forum hosted by HSBC Hong Kong, investors from multiple countries stated that Chinese tech stock valuations are only 1/3 to 1/4 of US stocks, and may even achieve valuation premium in the future. This trend indicates that the pattern of East rising while West declining is not a flash in the pan but the result of global capital reallocation.

三、2025年板块轮动规律探析

III. Analysis of Sector Rotation Patterns in 2025

3.1 科技板块的主导地位

3.1 Dominance of the Tech Sector

2025年的市场呈现结构性牛市特征，板块轮动成为显著规律。科技板块作为领涨先锋，其赚钱效应带动了市场整体活跃度。以人形机器人为代表的A股科技股年内涨幅超40%，部分个股甚至翻倍；港股恒生科技指数同样表现强劲。这种高成长性源于AI应用的广泛落地与政策支持。然而，短期内涨幅过快导致获利盘回吐，科技股出现阶段性调整。数据显示，调整期间A股日成交量仍维持在1万亿以上，显示市场参与度未减，调整更多是节奏性而非趋势性变化。

The market in 2025 showed structural bull market characteristics, with sector rotation becoming a significant pattern. As the leading sector, the tech sector's profit-making effect drove overall market activity. A-share tech stocks represented by humanoid robots rose over 40% for the year, with some individual stocks even doubling; the Hang Seng Tech Index also performed strongly. This high growth stemmed from widespread AI application implementation and policy support. However, rapid short-term gains led to profit-taking, resulting in periodic adjustments in tech stocks. Data shows that during the adjustment period, A-share daily trading volume remained above 1 trillion yuan, indicating unchanged market participation, with the adjustment being more rhythmic than trend-based.

3.2 消费与新能源的轮动潜力

3.2 Rotation Potential of Consumer and New Energy Sectors

科技板块调整后，市场资金开始向其他领域流动，消费与新能源板块崭露头角。中共中央近期提出"提振消费专项行动"，为消费股提供了政策利好。高端白酒、中药、食品饮料等细分领域，在经历长期低迷后具备反弹潜力。以白酒为例，贵州茅台自2021年后调整幅度超30%，当前估值回归合理区间，一旦消费回暖，其业绩弹性将逐步释放。

After the tech sector adjustment, market funds began flowing to other areas, with consumer and new energy sectors emerging. The CPC Central Committee recently proposed a "Special Action to Boost Consumption", providing policy support for consumer stocks. High-end liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, food and beverage, and other sub-sectors, after experiencing long-term weakness, have potential for rebound. Taking liquor as an example, Kweichow Moutai has adjusted more than 30% since 2021, with current valuations returning to reasonable ranges. Once consumption recovers, its performance elasticity will gradually be released.

新能源板块同样值得关注。尽管过去两年受产能过剩影响表现低迷，但随着全球能源转型加速，光伏、锂电池等领域的龙头企业已度过最艰难时期。数据显示，2024年底新能源相关基金持仓占比回升至15%，显示资金重新布局的迹象。这种轮动规律反映了市场对成长性与稳定性的双重需求，也为投资者提供了多元化的机会。

The new energy sector is also worth attention. Despite poor performance in the past two years due to overcapacity, with the acceleration of global energy transition, leading companies in photovoltaic and lithium battery fields have passed their most difficult period. Data shows that by the end of 2024, new energy-related fund holdings had rebounded to 15%, showing signs of capital reallocation. This rotation pattern reflects the market's dual demand for growth and stability, providing diversified opportunities for investors.

四、下一阶段的市场布局策略

IV. Next-stage Market Layout Strategy

4.1 中长线布局科技主线

4.1 Medium and Long-term Layout of Tech Mainline

尽管科技股短期调整，但其作为第四次科技革命核心方向的地位未变。人形机器人与AI应用的长期潜力不容忽视。未来，随着成本下降（预计机器人单价从19.9万元降至10万元以下），其普及度将大幅提升，进入千家万户如同今日的智能手机。布局策略上，建议关注细分行业龙头，如掌握核心零部件或智能大脑技术的企业。这些公司有望在竞争中脱颖而出，成为类似互联网时代的阿里、腾讯。

Despite short-term adjustments in tech stocks, their position as the core direction of the fourth technological revolution remains unchanged. The long-term potential of humanoid robots and AI applications cannot be ignored. In the future, as costs decline (robot unit price expected to drop from 199,000 yuan to below 100,000 yuan), their popularity will greatly increase, entering households like today's smartphones. In terms of layout strategy, it's recommended to focus on leading companies in sub-sectors, such as those mastering core components or smart brain technology. These companies are likely to stand out in competition, becoming similar to Alibaba and Tencent of the internet era.

基金配置方面，主动型主题基金优于ETF。数据显示，某人形机器人主题基金年内收益率达40%-55%，远超机器人ETF的20%。主动基金通过精选优质标的，能够更好捕捉行业红利，适合中长线投资者。

In terms of fund allocation, active thematic funds are better than ETFs. Data shows that a humanoid robot thematic fund achieved returns of 40%-55% for the year, far exceeding the 20% of robot ETFs. Active funds can better capture industry dividends through careful selection of quality targets, suitable for medium and long-term investors.

4.2 分散配置消费与新能源

4.2 Diversified Allocation of Consumer and New Energy

为平衡风险，下一阶段可适当分散配置消费与新能源板块。消费股的反弹依赖政策落地与内需复苏，投资者可关注业绩稳健的龙头企业，如白酒与食品饮料领域的头部公司。新能源则需聚焦技术创新与成本优势突出的企业，例如光伏领域的硅料供应商或锂电池的头部制造商。巴菲特"人弃我取，人追我弃"的投资哲学在此适用：当前市场对消费与新能源的悲观情绪，或正是低位布局的时机。

To balance risks, the next stage can include appropriate diversified allocation of consumer and new energy sectors. Consumer stock rebounds depend on policy implementation and domestic demand recovery. Investors can focus on leading companies with stable performance, such as top companies in liquor and food and beverage sectors. For new energy, focus should be on companies with outstanding technological innovation and cost advantages, such as silicon material suppliers in the photovoltaic field or leading manufacturers in lithium batteries. Buffett's investment philosophy of "buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying" applies here: current market pessimism towards consumer and new energy sectors might be the right time for low-position layout.

4.3 择时与风险管理

4.3 Timing and Risk Management

择时是投资成败的关键。当前科技股调整已持续数周，幅度相对充分，减仓时机已过，更适合逢低加仓。对于资金量较大的投资者，可采用定投策略，通过分批买入平滑成本，避免追高风险。同时，需警惕政策与外部环境的不确定性，如美联储降息节奏或中美贸易摩擦升级，保持20%以内的灵活仓位以应对波动。

Timing is key to investment success. The current tech stock adjustment has lasted several weeks with relatively sufficient magnitude. The timing for reducing positions has passed, making it more suitable for buying on dips. For investors with larger capital, they can adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy, smoothing costs through batch buying to avoid chasing high risks. Meanwhile, vigilance is needed for policy and external environment uncertainties, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace or escalation of China-US trade friction, maintaining flexible positions within 20% to cope with volatility.

结语

Conclusion

科技股的调整，既非假摔，亦非行情终结，而是牛市进程中的阶段性休整。本轮科技牛市源于全球资本再平衡与中国创新崛起，东升西落的格局在短期内仍将延续。2025年的板块轮动规律为投资者提供了多元机会，而下一阶段的布局需兼顾科技主线的长期潜力与消费、新能源的轮动价值。面对市场波动，理性判断与耐心持有是制胜之道。正如历史反复证明，时代的机遇往往隐藏于雷声滚滚之中，唯有洞察趋势、把握时机，方能在科技浪潮中实现财富增长。

The tech stock adjustment is neither a fake dip nor the end of the bull market, but rather a periodic rest in the bull market process. This round of tech bull market originated from global capital rebalancing and China's innovation rise, and the pattern of East rising while West declining will continue in the short term. The sector rotation patterns of 2025 provide diverse opportunities for investors, while the next stage's layout needs to balance the long-term potential of the tech mainline with the rotation value of consumer and new energy sectors. Facing market volatility, rational judgment and patient holding are the keys to success. As history repeatedly proves, opportunities of the era often hide in the midst of thunder, and only by insight into trends and seizing opportunities can one achieve wealth growth in the tech wave.