4/2/2025
全球金融市场进入关键转折期。美股因特朗普关税政策落地，科技板块承压显著。
科技股能否重拾升势？
Can Technology Stocks Regain Their Upward Momentum?
全球金融市场进入关键转折期。美股因特朗普关税政策落地，科技板块承压显著。 The global financial market has entered a critical turning point. Due to the implementation of Trump's tariff policy, the technology sector of the US stock market has faced significant pressure.
与此同时，A股在一季度剧烈波动中去向不明，科技股却因获利回吐与外部扰动陷入调整。面对这一复杂局面，市场参与者不禁发问：科技股能否重拾升势？ Meanwhile, the A-share market has been in a state of uncertainty amidst sharp fluctuations in the first quarter. Technology stocks have entered an adjustment phase due to profit-taking and external disturbances. Facing this complex situation, market participants can't help but wonder: Can technology stocks regain their upward momentum?
国内市场又将如何应对全球博弈？本文围绕大盘调整的深层原因、关税政策的影响、科技行情的持续性以及行业轮动机会四大主题展开分析，结合历史案例与数据，探寻不确定性中的理性路径。 How will the domestic market respond to the global game? This article analyzes four major themes: the underlying reasons for the market adjustment, the impact of tariff policies, the sustainability of the technology market, and the opportunities for sector rotation. By combining historical cases and data, it seeks a rational path in the face of uncertainty.
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一、大盘调整的深层原因：短期修正还是趋势拐点？
I. Underlying Reasons for the Market Adjustment: Short-term Correction or Trend Inflection Point?
调整的本质：获利回吐与预期落空
The Essence of the Adjustment: Profit-taking and Unmet Expectations
2025年一季度，A股市场经历了一轮显著波动。科技股作为主线在一、二月大幅上涨，部分板块如人形机器人指数涨幅超过20%，个别基金甚至接近40%。然而，三月以来，市场情绪迅速回落，科技股普遍回调13%-15%，上证指数虽守住3400点，但成交量从1.5万亿萎缩至1万亿左右。 In the first quarter of 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant fluctuation. Technology stocks, as the main theme, rose sharply in January and February. Some sectors, such as the humanoid robot index, increased by more than 20%, and some individual funds even approached 40%. However, since March, market sentiment has quickly cooled down. Technology stocks have generally corrected by 13% - 15%. Although the Shanghai Composite Index has held above 3400 points, trading volume has shrunk from 1.5 trillion to about 1 trillion.
这波调整的根本原因在于前期过快上涨累积了大量获利盘，叠加政策预期迟迟未兑现，市场信心受到考验。 The fundamental reason for this adjustment is that the rapid rise in the previous period accumulated a large number of profit-making positions. Coupled with the long-delayed fulfillment of policy expectations, market confidence has been tested.
以人形机器人板块为例，其在一季度的高歌猛进源于政策支持与产业前景的乐观预期。然而，当央行降准降息的“择机”承诺未能如期落地，投资者耐心逐渐耗尽，获利回吐压力随之显现。历史上，2019-2020年新能源车热潮也曾因特斯拉国产化预期兑现而引发短期回调，但随后在订单与业绩支撑下重拾升势。 Taking the humanoid robot sector as an example, its rapid rise in the first quarter was due to policy support and optimistic expectations for the industry's prospects. However, when the central bank's promise to cut reserve requirements and interest rates "at an appropriate time" failed to materialize as expected, investors' patience gradually wore thin, and the pressure of profit-taking emerged. Historically, during the new energy vehicle boom from 2019 to 2020, there was also a short-term correction after the expectation of Tesla's localization was fulfilled. However, it later regained its upward momentum supported by orders and performance.
此次科技股调整与之类似，更多是对前期过热行情的修正，而非长期趋势的逆转。 Similar to this, the current adjustment of technology stocks is more of a correction of the previous overheated market rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
外部扰动与政策博弈
External Disturbances and Policy Games
外部因素同样加剧了调整压力。美股科技股近期跌幅较大，纳斯达克指数自高点回落15%，部分原因是特朗普关税政策的反复博弈。美联储因通胀隐忧推迟降息至5月甚至更晚，导致全球流动性预期收紧。中国央行则受制于人民币汇率压力，若提前降息，人民币兑美元利差扩大可能引发贬值风险，进而动摇国际化进程。 External factors have also intensified the adjustment pressure. US technology stocks have fallen significantly recently, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has declined by 15% from its peak. Part of the reason is the repeated games over Trump's tariff policy. The Federal Reserve has postponed interest rate cuts until May or even later due to concerns about inflation, leading to an expected tightening of global liquidity. The People's Bank of China is constrained by the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. If it cuts interest rates ahead of schedule, the widening interest rate differential between the RMB and the US dollar may trigger a depreciation risk, which in turn could shake the internationalization process.
在此背景下，央行选择观望而非贸然出手，政策真空期进一步放大了市场波动。 Against this background, the central bank has chosen to wait and see rather than act rashly. The policy vacuum period has further amplified market fluctuations.
尽管如此，经济数据显示复苏迹象。三月制造业PMI回升至，结束了连续数月的收缩状态。这表明政策托底效应正在显现，后续支持措施仍有空间。调整虽在所难免，但其性质更接近上涨途中的阶段性喘息，而非趋势性下跌。 Nevertheless, economic data shows signs of recovery. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in March, ending several consecutive months of contraction. This indicates that the policy support effect is emerging, and there is still room for subsequent support measures. Although the adjustment is inevitable, its nature is more like a temporary pause during the upward trend rather than a trend reversal.
判断依据与前瞻展望
Judgment Criteria and Forward-looking Outlook
判断调整性质需关注两点。其一，成交量的变化。当前1万亿的水平虽低于前期高点，但仍高于2024年11月低迷期的8000亿，显示市场并未完全丧失信心。 Two points need to be noted when judging the nature of the adjustment. First, the change in trading volume. Although the current level of 1 trillion is lower than the previous high, it is still higher than the 800 billion during the trough in November 2024, indicating that the market has not completely lost confidence.
其二，外部扰动的演变。若关税政策落地后美股企稳，全球风险偏好可能回升，利好A股反弹。反之，若美股继续下探，国内市场恐难独善其身。短期来看，调整或在四月中旬触底，为后续行情蓄力。 Second, the evolution of external disturbances. If the US stock market stabilizes after the implementation of the tariff policy, global risk appetite may recover, which is beneficial for the A-share market to rebound. Conversely, if the US stock market continues to decline, it will be difficult for the domestic market to remain unscathed. In the short term, the adjustment may bottom out in mid-April, laying the foundation for the subsequent market.
二、关税政策的影响：全球博弈下的中国机遇
II. Impact of Tariff Policies: China's Opportunities in the Global Game
特朗普关税的“四处出击”
Trump's "All-out" Tariff Policy
2025年4月2日凌晨，特朗普宣布对全球进口商品普遍加征20%关税，旨在减少美国贸易逆差并振兴制造业。与2018年贸易战聚焦中国不同，此次政策无差别覆盖加拿大、墨西哥等盟友，显示出“以全世界为敌”的强硬姿态。然而，这一策略对美国自身的伤害不容忽视。进口成本上升将推高物价，通胀压力可能迫使美联储加快加息步伐，进一步拖累美股表现。 Early in the morning of April 2, 2025, Trump announced a general 20% tariff increase on all imported goods globally, aiming to reduce the US trade deficit and revitalize the manufacturing industry. Different from the 2018 trade war that focused on China, this policy covers allies such as Canada and Mexico without discrimination, showing a tough stance of "being at odds with the whole world." However, the harm of this strategy to the US itself cannot be ignored. The increase in import costs will push up prices, and inflationary pressure may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, further dragging down the performance of the US stock market.
对中国而言，影响相对可控。一方面，部分企业已通过将生产线迁至东南亚等地规避关税风险；另一方面，20%的税率虽高于此前预期，却未达到致命水平。2018年贸易战初期，标普500回调10%，A股同步下挫，但随后银行股因高股息率吸引避险资金，跑赢大盘5个百分点。此次关税落地后，类似逻辑或重演，国内市场有望借机承接部分避险资金。 For China, the impact is relatively controllable. On the one hand, some enterprises have avoided tariff risks by relocating their production lines to Southeast Asia and other places. On the other hand, although the 20% tariff rate is higher than previously expected, it is not fatal. At the beginning of the 2018 trade war, the S&P 500 corrected by 10%, and the A-share market declined synchronously. However, bank stocks later attracted risk-averse funds due to their high dividend yields and outperformed the market by 5 percentage points. After the implementation of the current tariff policy, a similar logic may repeat, and the domestic market is expected to absorb some risk-averse funds.
人民币汇率与政策空间
RMB Exchange Rate and Policy Space
关税加征对出口企业构成一定压力，但对整体经济的影响有限。关键在于人民币汇率的稳定性。若贬值幅度过大，可能削弱国际信心，央行因此倾向于保持币值稳定。然而，美联储降息节奏放缓为中国提供了喘息空间。若后续全球通胀压力缓解，央行或在二季度择机降准，释放流动性支持市场。 The tariff increase poses some pressure on export enterprises, but its impact on the overall economy is limited. The key lies in the stability of the RMB exchange rate. If the depreciation is too large, it may weaken international confidence. Therefore, the central bank tends to maintain the stability of the currency value. However, the slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace has provided China with some breathing space. If the global inflation pressure eases in the future, the central bank may choose an appropriate time to cut the reserve requirement ratio in the second quarter to release liquidity and support the market.
从历史经验看，2018年贸易战并未阻断中国经济的长期增长。相反，政策应对推动了科技自立，华为等企业在制裁下实现芯片突破。此次关税虽带来短期扰动，却也可能倒逼产业升级，增强国内市场的韧性。 From historical experience, the 2018 trade war did not stop China's long-term economic growth. On the contrary, the policy responses promoted technological self-reliance. Enterprises such as Huawei achieved breakthroughs in chip technology under sanctions. Although the current tariff policy brings short-term disturbances, it may also force industrial upgrading and enhance the resilience of the domestic market.
机遇与风险并存
Coexistence of Opportunities and Risks
关税落地或缓解市场的不确定性情绪，为四月反弹创造条件。若美股因通胀担忧继续下挫，资金可能转向新兴市场，中国作为第二大经济体具备吸引力。然而，若中美摩擦升级，叠加美股超预期调整，系统性风险将考验国内市场的承受力。投资者需密切关注政策节奏与全球动态，抓住机遇的同时规避潜在陷阱。 The implementation of the tariff policy may alleviate the market's uncertainty and create conditions for a rebound in April. If the US stock market continues to decline due to inflation concerns, funds may flow to emerging markets, and China, as the second-largest economy, is attractive. However, if Sino-US frictions escalate and the US stock market adjusts more than expected, systemic risks will test the resilience of the domestic market. Investors need to closely monitor the policy rhythm and global dynamics, seize opportunities while avoiding potential pitfalls.
三、科技行情的持续性：短期瓶颈与长期逻辑
III. Sustainability of the Technology Market: Short-term Bottlenecks and Long-term Logic
科技股的短期困境
Short-term Dilemma of Technology Stocks
科技股在一季度的高光表现后，四月启动面临瓶颈。三月回调13%，半导体与消费电子跌幅居前，成交量萎缩至1.12万亿，远低于热潮期的1.5万亿门槛。情绪未能突破临界点是核心原因。二月亢奋期后，利好兑现与海外扰动叠加，资金从追捧转为观望。小米汽车事故与知名投资人清仓机器人等事件进一步削弱信心，科技板块屡遭“倒春寒”。 After the outstanding performance in the first quarter, technology stocks face bottlenecks in starting a new upward trend in April. They corrected by 13% in March, with semiconductors and consumer electronics leading the decline. Trading volume shrank to 1.12 trillion, far below the 1.5 trillion threshold during the boom period. The core reason is that market sentiment failed to break through the critical point. After the exuberant period in February, the realization of positive factors and overseas disturbances combined, causing funds to shift from chasing to waiting and seeing. Events such as the Xiaomi car accident and well-known investors liquidating their robot stocks further weakened confidence, and the technology sector has repeatedly suffered from "late spring cold."
以人形机器人为例，尽管长期前景被看好，但短期内盈利闭环尚未形成。整机企业五年内难见盈利，而零部件供应商虽受益于订单增长，却因市场情绪低迷难以点燃热潮。AI算力过剩的疑虑也拖累相关板块，微软等巨头缩减投入显示全球热潮趋于理性。科技行情的启动需要情绪预热与重磅催化，短期内难成主角。 Taking humanoid robots as an example, although the long-term prospects are promising, a profit-making cycle has not been formed in the short term. It is difficult for整机 enterprises to make profits within five years. Although component suppliers benefit from the growth of orders, they find it difficult to spark a boom due to the sluggish market sentiment. Concerns about the excess of AI computing power have also dragged down related sectors. Giants such as Microsoft reducing their investments indicate that the global boom is becoming more rational. The start of the technology market requires emotional warming-up and significant catalysts, and it is difficult to play a leading role in the short term.
长期逻辑的坚实支撑
Solid Support for the Long-term Logic
尽管短期承压，科技股的长期逻辑依然稳固。中国在硬件与软件领域的双重突破为其提供了坚实基础。硬件方面，光刻机技术的进展为7纳米芯片生产打开可能，打破“卡脖子”困局；软件方面，DeepSeek等大模型的推出挑战ChatGPT，扭转了全球资本对中国科技的悲观预期。这些进展为机器人、智能驾驶等产业奠定了根基，未来两三年有望迎来爆发。 Although facing short-term pressure, the long-term logic of technology stocks remains solid. China's double breakthroughs in the hardware and software fields provide a solid foundation. In terms of hardware, the progress of lithography technology has made it possible to produce 7-nanometer chips, breaking the "bottleneck" dilemma. In terms of software, the launch of large models such as DeepSeek challenges ChatGPT and reverses the global capital's pessimistic expectations for Chinese technology. These developments lay the foundation for industries such as robots and intelligent driving, which are expected to explode in the next two or three years.
历史上，新能源车热潮从2019年概念炒作，到2020年订单落地，再到2021年业绩兑现，涨幅超200%。人形机器人或遵循相似路径：当前处于题材阶段，明年或进入订单炒作，后年业绩逐步释放。调整虽暂时压制热情，但为后续上涨提供了空间。 Historically, the new energy vehicle boom started with concept speculation in 2019, followed by the implementation of orders in 2020, and the realization of performance in 2021, with a rise of more than 200%. Humanoid robots may follow a similar path: currently in the theme stage, they may enter the order speculation stage next year, and performance will be gradually released the year after. Although the adjustment temporarily suppresses enthusiasm, it provides room for subsequent growth.
右侧交易的策略意义
Strategic Significance of Right-side Trading
科技股弹性大，涨跌无常，适合右侧交易而非左侧布局。以DeepSeek为例，二月介入者仍获15%收益，错过前期波动无碍大局。 Technology stocks are highly volatile and their price movements are unpredictable. They are more suitable for right-side trading rather than left-side layout. Taking DeepSeek as an example, those who entered in February still gained a 15% return, and missing the previous fluctuations did not matter much.
四月若强行左侧建仓，可能因成交量不足与事件压制陷入震荡。耐心等待趋势明朗，方能事半功倍。 If one tries to build a position on the left side in April, they may get stuck in a volatile situation due to insufficient trading volume and event suppression. Only by patiently waiting for the trend to become clear can one achieve twice the result with half the effort.
四、行业轮动机会：均衡配置下的潜在洼地
IV. Sector Rotation Opportunities: Potential Undervalued Sectors under Balanced Allocation
科技之外的洼地赛道
Undervalued Sectors outside Technology
四月科技蓄力不足，其他板块或迎轮动机会。红利资产如银行股表现稳健，三月跑赢大盘2%-3%，股息率5%-6%，政策补充资本金强化其防御性。若利率周期趋稳，利润空间有望扩大。 In April, the technology sector lacks momentum, and other sectors may have rotation opportunities. Dividend assets such as bank stocks have performed steadily, outperforming the market by 2% - 3% in March, with a dividend yield of 5% - 6%. Policy support for replenishing capital strengthens their defensive ability. If the interest rate cycle stabilizes, the profit margin is expected to expand.
房地产亦现回暖迹象，三月一线城市成交量创新高，四月或延续反弹，但空间有限。消费与医疗作为传统洼地，若政策托底内需，可能阶段性活跃。 The real estate market also shows signs of recovery. The trading volume in first-tier cities reached a new high in March, and the rebound may continue in April, but the upside is limited. As traditional undervalued sectors, consumption and healthcare may become active periodically if policies support domestic demand.
军工与稀有资源则与大国博弈挂钩。四月中美摩擦加剧，叠加军演信号，或刺激相关板块表现。2018年贸易战初期，军工指数涨幅超10%，当前逻辑或重演。创新药与AI医疗也值得关注，集采压力减弱叠加技术赋能，为其反弹提供了契机。 The military industry and rare resources are related to the game between major powers. In April, the intensification of Sino-US frictions, combined with the signal of military exercises, may stimulate the performance of related sectors. At the beginning of the 2018 trade war, the military industry index rose by more than 10%, and the current logic may repeat. Innovative drugs and AI healthcare are also worthy of attention. The weakening of centralized procurement pressure and technological empowerment provide an opportunity for their rebound.
均衡配置的策略思路
Strategic Thinking of Balanced Allocation
在低成交量环境下，均衡配置为宜。科技股可保留10%-20%仓位，等待右侧机会；红利资产占比50%，提供现金流与防御性；洼地赛道如房地产、军工配置20%-30%，捕捉轮动收益。黄金虽三月涨幅15%至3100美元/盎司，但靴子落地后或面临消化性回调，需警惕短期风险。 In an environment of low trading volume, balanced allocation is advisable. One can keep 10% - 20% of the position in technology stocks and wait for right-side opportunities. Dividend assets should account for 50%, providing cash flow and defensive ability. Allocate 20% - 30% to undervalued sectors such as real estate and the military industry to capture rotation gains. Although gold rose by 15% to $3100 per ounce in March, it may face a corrective adjustment after the situation becomes clear. One needs to be vigilant against short-term risks.
历史启示与长期逻辑
Historical Enlightenment and Long-term Logic
均衡布局穿越波动的能力已被历史验证。2008年危机后，高股息策略年化收益率超10%，跑赢标普500。当前市场虽非危机，但情绪低迷与政策博弈并存，短期博弈需顺势，长期布局靠定力。 The ability of balanced allocation to withstand market fluctuations has been verified by history. After the 2008 crisis, the high-dividend strategy had an annualized return of more than 10%, outperforming the S&P 500. Although the current market is not in a crisis, low market sentiment and policy games coexist. One needs to follow the trend in short-term games and rely on determination for long-term layout.
四月作为转折点，既是喘息期，也是观察期，把握节奏方能化危为机。 As a turning point, April is both a breathing period and an observation period. Only by grasping the rhythm can one turn crisis into opportunity.
理性应对波动，静待趋势明朗
Respond Rationally to Volatility and Wait for the Trend to Clear
2025年四月，全球市场在美股回调与关税落地的双重洗礼下迎来转折。国内市场虽非避风港，却有望借外部扰动降级与内部政策蓄力获得喘息。科技股短期受制于情绪与成交量瓶颈，但长期逻辑坚实，未来两三年仍是核心赛道。 In April 2025, the global market has reached a turning point under the double impact of the US stock market correction and the implementation of tariff policies. Although the domestic market is not a safe haven, it is expected to get some breathing space through the reduction of external disturbances and the accumulation of internal policy support. Technology stocks are short-term constrained by sentiment and trading volume bottlenecks, but their long-term logic is solid, and they will still be the core sectors in the next two or three years.
配置上，红利资产稳底，洼地赛道补位，科技右侧待机，方为理性之选。 In terms of asset allocation, using dividend assets to stabilize the foundation, filling in the gaps with undervalued sectors, and waiting for opportunities in technology stocks on the right side is a rational choice.
在波动中保持定力，在政策节奏中捕捉先机，才能在不确定的资本海洋中乘风破浪。 Only by maintaining determination in the face of volatility and seizing opportunities in the policy rhythm can one ride the waves in the uncertain capital market.
